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This holiday period report shows the steady increase in volume as the new year began. The position changes in the COT report are small but not necessarily because of the light volume and more because of the two-way direction of the market. Prices began in the mid 220s, rallied to the mid 230s and dropped back down to the 220.00 area. At this level, the market found a great deal of support in forward months causing a drop in spread values but providing a level of support. This area was significant not only for technical reasons but also because the buying was very likely consumer related. On the last day of the report, prices emphatically returned to the mid 230s. On the days following the report, prices dropped below 230.00 and rallied sharply to the 240.00 only to find a great deal of resistance.
In RC, commercials and small traders sold as all other sectors bought but in KC, all sectors were net buyers while funds sold. It appears that on Friday funds and others were buyers while longs, and commercials, sold. Forward selling was present, possibly origin, causing spreads to strengthen.
The market continues to be strong. Support and resistance levels remain at the handles. On the 14th, G options will expire and we may see pauses at striking prices as well. we will see on Monday if the 240.00 area selling is enough to cause another correction or if the market can rise above it.