(Bloomberg) -- Country may collect 39.5m bags of arabica and 22.5m of robusta, according to Prata Pereira Exportadora de Cafe, an exporter based in Minas Gerais, the biggest producing state.
• Compares with 53.6m bags in 2021-22, when output fell to lowest in 12 years, with arabica at 32.4m bags, exporter says
• Assessment is based on survey of growing areas Dec. to Jan., interviews and discussion with market participants from many regions, Joao Prata Pereira, partner and head trader, says by phone
• NOTE: 2022 will be high-yielding cycle of the crop, after the lower half of the biennial period in 2021 was worsened by severe drought
o Frosts, more dryness curbed outlook for this year
o Crop will therefore trail 71.8m bags reaped in last big cycle in 20-21
• Stockpiles “very low, at uncomfortable levels”
o “Coffee is still moving, but by Dec. 2022 and Jan. 23 it will be very difficult to get coffee in Brazil”
• “Fertilizer costs are very high but coffee prices are even higher, so I don’t see that see holding back production”
o Recent ample rains boosted outlook for 2023, but farms still need to go through winter, and if more bad frosts occur, “it will be a nightmare” for world supplies
• NOTE: Bag weighs 60 kgs, or 132 lbs
• NOTE: Brazil Coffee Output Seen at 65.8m Bags This Year: HedgePoint
Message Thread
« Back to index