Hey Coffee Traders long time follower first time poster. Quite a move weíve had in coffee prices hope many of you are participating. I thought for fun I would share my crystal ball forecast for coffee prices. Incredibly March KC 2011 has been a fantastic analog for this year with prices respecting old resistance levels. Check it out. The actual congestion in 2011 between 220 and 240 was much shorter before starting a strong rally at the end of January to the $3.00 level. The congestion weíve been experiencing has been longer.After serious reflection I Have come to the conclusion that we are being held back by the rebalancing. In 2011 January was a flat month as well, we can postulate that the rebalancing was a factor then as well. By the end of January 2011 price began to move sharply higher and I expect a repeat to begin shortly.The next important resistance level will be around the $3.00 level. If you look at the included chart you can clearly see the monthly trend line will play an important role. You can see how important the monthly 215 trend line dating back many years was this summer! Iím expecting us to challenge the upper trend line in early March.Perhaps we go higher to get an extreme bullish sentiment, somewhere between 3.00-3.40. I then fully expect a violent correction of 40-60 cents lasting 3-4 weeks. Once that correction is complete I expect a massive parabolic rally to top out in early May between $6.00 and $7.00. Whether the target is reached or not the top will be in, in early May and the bull market will be over.
- Rally to start end of month
- Target at least $3.00 by early March maybe higher
- Largest correction at least 40 cents to last around 3 weeks
- Final parabolic rally to end in early May possible target $6-7.00
Yes itís maybe coffee porn, but everyone is over 21, right?
Thereís only 1 reason to speculate in commodities and thatís to get rich! So good luck to everyone and letís see how it plays out!
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