• That compares with a deficit of 9.4m bags a year earlier, the biggest in years, when Brazilian output drop was exacerbated by drought
• Brazil’s output seen at 64.5m bags versus 55.6m a year earlier; Notes recent rain caused damage to farms in several states, including top arabica producer Minas Gerais and Espirito Santo
• Vietnam’s crop seen rising to 33m bags from 31.4m, while Colombia will climb to 15.5m bags from 14.2m
• Projections for Brazil are much higher than those from the country’s government, more aligned with private ests.
• Keeps bullish 0-3m point-price target for arabica futures around $2.45/lb, on weather risk premiums, tight stockpiles
• NOTE: Bag weighs 60 kgs
• For sugar, output seen rising to 169.8m tons, trailing consumption of 174.2m tons, the fourth straight global deficit, even with better Brazilian and Thai harvests
• Raw sugar may target 20c/lb before Brazil’s harvest resumes in Center-South by April
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