(Bloomberg) -- In 2022-23 season, world coffee production may reach 178.2m bags with consumption at 177.1m bags, Citigroup analysts including Aakash Doshi say in report.

• That compares with a deficit of 9.4m bags a year earlier, the biggest in years, when Brazilian output drop was exacerbated by drought

• Brazil’s output seen at 64.5m bags versus 55.6m a year earlier; Notes recent rain caused damage to farms in several states, including top arabica producer Minas Gerais and Espirito Santo

• Vietnam’s crop seen rising to 33m bags from 31.4m, while Colombia will climb to 15.5m bags from 14.2m

• Projections for Brazil are much higher than those from the country’s government, more aligned with private ests.

• Keeps bullish 0-3m point-price target for arabica futures around $2.45/lb, on weather risk premiums, tight stockpiles

• NOTE: Bag weighs 60 kgs

• For sugar, output seen rising to 169.8m tons, trailing consumption of 174.2m tons, the fourth straight global deficit, even with better Brazilian and Thai harvests

• Raw sugar may target 20c/lb before Brazil’s harvest resumes in Center-South by April