By Tatiana Freitas
(Bloomberg) --
Brazil’s 2022-23 arabica coffee crop estimate was toward the lower end of the bank’s initial expectations, Rabobank says Thursday in a report.
The new estimate of 41.4m bags compares with 31.4m bags estimated by Conab during the previous season
Flowering did not live up to its initial promise, which along with inclement weather is curbing output potential
Est. was released after a Rabobank crop survey
Vegetative growth is excellent and may favor 2023-24 crop
2022-23 conilon crop seen at 23.1m bags, above the initial expectation of 21m-22m
“The conilon crop is surpassingly large” as excellent rainfall since October favored the crop and kept reservoirs at high levels
Current coffee crop won’t be affected by higher fertilizer prices or shortages as applications occur between Oct. and March, with most of crop nutrients bought well in advance
2023-24 crop faces some risks, especially if Russian war against Ukraine war doesn’t end by mid-22
“From December onward, we may have a complicated situation”
Farmers may adopt some strategies, such as partially switching to biofertilizers, anticipating farm inputs purchases and using precision agriculture to reduce application rates
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