COFFEE: Given that the MAY coffee has now reached our MINIMUM, UPSIDE TARGET AT ABOUT THE 229.05-230.25 AREA, the development of a near immediate, “5-wave DROP”...could prompt us to GO SHORT now? At this point, however, whether the overall advance from the March 15 low (210.15) is unfolding into a “Single”, OR “Double-Three”, BOTH COUNTS suggest that the earliest we should HIT THE FINAL TOP...IS TUESDAY, APRIL 5. Thus, we’ll probably hold-off on entering a sell-order before then. If this scenario proves correct, however, then prices probably WILL REACH OUR OPTIMUM, UPSIDE TARGET...AT THE 234.25-235.90 LEVEL? This zone yields the “123.6%-times wave-a” projection, the “65.45%-67.275%-50%-retracement combination” from the 1977, 2011 and 2022 highs, AND “appreciations” of 11.795% and 10.40% from the March 15 and March 28 lows. Traders should also note, however, that the “stop” on a short-position here probably needs to GO ABOVE OUR MAX RESISTANCE AREA...AT 237.50-238.65? Anyhow, if our Preferred Count is right, once a “wave-(2)”, OR “wave-(b)AD-VANCE” from the March low has ENDED, then the stage should be set for A SUBSTANTIAL, “wave-(3)”, OR “wave-(c)DECLINE”, of the same-degree as the Feb-March drop! In which case, at least for now, it looks like prices WILL FALL TO EITHER THE 194.85-193.40, OR 189.50-188.65 SUPPORT AREA(S). There’s also resistance at 232.25-232.55 and 240.35-240.85, with near-term support at 228.40, 227.05-226.10, 224.45-222.45(good), 220.90-219.35(good), 217.20-216.20, 214.80-213.35 and 211.60.
Message Thread
« Back to index