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Re: Production Consensus and Reliability Update -- not median as still NOT including many numbers
For all that I appreciate all the work you put into collecting and publishing this table, Tango, I continue to be baffled as to why you and most everybody else on this forum entirely IGNORES my numbers? I have published numbers on Brazil - and world coffee outlook numbers - since 2013-14 and I have undertaken crop trips to Brazil REGULARLY since 2000, i.e.for over 22 years. I have witnessed, and reported on and RESEARCHED every single producing region in Brazil since my first trip and been ahead EVERY time there has been new trends such as new areas of production or different regions implementing plans to increase production, i.e. I was among the VERY first to report on new growth from new high yielding conilon varieties in ES all the way back in 2010. My numbers are well known and widely published, so if you really aspire to make this table a "production consensus" and present this as a "median" view for the Brazil outlook, you/forum should not only include my numbers as well, but also those of at least 3-4 different producer groups such as Sincal, el Conselho and Procafe, even IF you yourself believe these numbers to be too low. SIncal, for instance, is no more biased toward a lower range of numbers than Ecom, Rabobank and Citibank are toward the HIGHER end of the range.
I have also, in contrast to most of the sources quoted here, remained 100% consistent in my crop views since Oct/Nov last year and having just returned from over 3 weeks touring farms across regions representative to over 90% of total A+R coffee production in Brazil so, frankly, it would almost appear to be a deliberate choice or decision NOT to include my numbers here.
I have a widely published forecast for the 2022 Brazil crop to reach between 44M-48M bags in the current new 2022 harvest, and you can take the median of each range if you want a rounded number as this is perfectly within a 5% error margin. I.e. my numbers are;
BRAZIL 46 47
Arabica 29 31
Robusta 17 16
I look forward to seeing this table updated and wld be happy to help with additional figures from other coffee groups and/or individuals if you would like to.
Kind regards, Maja