Is the coffee futures market broken? Futures 101 cash and futures should be equal at the designated delivery location in the delivery month. This has not happened since the Fall of 2020. Since then actual prices for delivery grades has been much higher then the futures market, the result has been a significant drawdown in certified stocks.
We’re now heading to a showdown between The Big Commercial Interests and the Large Speculative interests. The cheapest deliverable grade at this time is 40 cents above the futures price, so if the futures price was 40 cents higher it would competeFor coffee and some coffee would be delivered to the board possibly alleviating the
low stock situation. Commercials protecting their own interests would prefer not to introduce another buyer for cash coffee which could wreak havoc on the market this year with such low inventory.let’s review, the solution to the low stocks is for the futures market to be at a price that encourages deliveries. This would be a disaster for commercials as this would destroy positive differentials they have on their books, in addition they would compete for physical coffee with speculators, this is of course as it should be. With December deliveries fast approaching and limited deliverable availabilities of Honduran coffee don’t be surprised if the vested commercial interests force the exchange to go to a Dolllar settlement. I hope it doesn’t happen because that will destroy the integrity of the market. Think it can’t happen, look no further than the LME nickel market this year. Coffee is one of the worst manipulated markets, we take it in stride in the hope of fundamentals lining up for a big opportunity let’s hope the exchange treats all participants fairly!