Colombia production is reportedly down 1.7M bags the last 11 months, yet the country is able to ship only 800K bags less YoY over the same period.
Brasil has shipped the 2nd highest Arabica pace for September on record (back to our original cecafe thread here)
Global inventories are on the rise, despite the technicality around low board stocks. while this is alien to coffee, other market btw have navigated low board stock without guaranteed explosions higher.
I think the perfect storm you mention in coffee happened 12-18 months ago from 130 to 200+. The current volatility and difficult trading environment is more a function of the damage caused in that storm more than anything else.
Espresso1 - you do raise an interesting point though. if B2B trading is only way forward, and coffee is unhedgeable, do you think that Washed Differentials will be able to remain this expensive ?
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