World Coffee Surplus Cut by 2.4m Bags on Brazil Woes: Rabobank

By Dayanne Sousa

(Bloomberg) --

Global coffee supplies should outpace demand by 1.6m bags in the 2023-24 season, a tighter surplus compared to previous November estimate of 4m, Rabobank said in a Wednesday report.

World supplies to get tighter on lower output expectations from top producer Brazil
Brazil’s arabica crop seen at 44m bags, a 3.9m increase year-on-year
Robusta output in Brazil seen at 23.1m, similar to previous year
“The flowering of the 2023-24 arabica crop in Brazil has been excellent, but the fixing has disappointed,” Rabobank analyst Carlos Mera writes
After above-average rains in January, incipient signs of coffee rust have been reported in Brazil
Colombia production seen at 14m bags, compared to 11.8m in 2022-23
Current season was affected by excessive rain but the outlook for the next one is seen as “much brighter”
Expectation is of recovery in Central American crops in the current season
Global coffee demand to grow to 173.2m bags from 169.5m in previous season
“For now, demand does not seem to be too disappointing”: Rabobank
NOTE: Coffee Prices Poised to Climb as Bean Shortfall Nears Third Year
NOTE: A bag weighs 60kg