Yes I am seeing coffee prices very strong with no signs of recovery in the short term. Despite today´s drop, yet to be confirmed if a continuation.

However, I do see some challenges ahead

1. A high percentage of roasters have not fixed their March commitments yet, waiting for the market to move lower (the opposite happened and by a bunch). If fix now, they will either pass % of higher cost to final consumers or see their margin melts like butter on a hot summer day. The other awful option: DEFAUT.
2. Producers speculators, fixed prices in Brazil at BRL$1.500/bag and are watching prices at BRL$2.700/bag. Can you imagine the quality they´ll deliver, or even if they will do so? DEFAUT? Just a matter of %
3. Brazilian exporters are bleeding on their short positions. The USD still pretty high and margin calls exploded. How about cash flow if companies like CafeBras/Mercon are already out of the game? More companies do follow?
One dreams with market at $5 or 6/lb, others will jump off the boat and Nature will give us the answer.

I personally hope for an equilibrium – where all can make money. But this is coffee and always playing the extremes.

Good trade folks