I asked: Looking at the Spaghetti Model map it seems like the path for a direct hit is slightly west of where I live in la Manzanilla. Is this a slight change or consistent with former versions?

(There was some interesting information about the Right-Front quadrant in this answer.)

Yes, this is a slight shift westward compared to the earlier projections for Hurricane Simon. [1]
Earlier computer models and National Hurricane Center tracks had the center of circulation tracking slightly further east, which threatened to bring the eyewall and direct hit directly over or just east of the Coast of Jalisco and Colima (closer to [Manzanillo](https://www.google.com/search?kgmid=/m/01gn2t)). The current spaghetti models shown in your image from the 18Z model run on October 9, 2026 have consolidated on a path tracking just off the coast, placing the center of the track tightly along the coastline slightly west of La Manzanilla as it moves north-northwest past Pérula, Tomatlán, and toward Puerto Vallarta. [1, 2, 3]
While a westward shift means the absolute center might pass slightly to your west, you should not let your guard down for several critical reasons:

*
* The Right-Front Quadrant: Hurricanes in the Northern Hemisphere spin counterclockwise. Because the storm is moving north, the strongest winds, heaviest storm surge, and most intense rainfall are concentrated on the east and northeast side of the eye (the right-front quadrant). Since La Manzanilla sits just east of this projected path, you will likely bear the brunt of the storm's harshest conditions. [4, 5]
* Extreme Hazards: Simon has rapidly intensified into a major hurricane. The [National Hurricane Center](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/) warns of potentially catastrophic rainfall between 8 to 15 inches (with isolated areas seeing up to 25 inches), severe storm surges, and life-threatening mudslides across coastal Jalisco. [5, 6, 7]
*

Please closely monitor the next official advisory update from the National Hurricane Center or local Protección Civil updates, and ensure all emergency preparations are completed immediately. [8, 9]
Are you currently in a safe, designated shelter location, or do you need assistance finding evacuation routes and local emergency contact numbers for the Cihuatlán/La Manzanilla area?

[1] [https://www.youtube.com](

[2] [https://www.youtube.com](

[3] [https://www.youtube.com](

[4] [https://www.reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/LosAngeles/comments/15vksz4/false_alarm_folks_hilary_is_trending_too_far_east/)
[5] [https://www.nhc.noaa.gov](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/mobile/text/refresh/MIATCPEP5+html/082332.shtml)
[6] [https://apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/hurricane-simon-mexico-pacific-733c6a028547ee832c885274cf11589e)
[7] [https://www.independent.co.uk](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/hurricane-simon-2026-path-mexico-isaias-rachel-b3064222.html)
[8] [https://zoom.earth](https://zoom.earth/storms/simon-2026/)
[9] [https://www.nhc.noaa.gov](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/mobile/refresh/graphics_ep5+html/080233.html?wwCone)