King Crimson passes the influence and longevity tests, but fails most other factors typically thought of as important. No big-selling albums. No radio hits. Unlike their contemporaries who did get in, no period in the 1980s when they got really popular (like Yes or Genesis); hence no songs that made it into the consciousness of the general population. On the other hand, they have been around since 1969, and the Hall has made exceptions for sales and hit songs for influence when the artist in question is from the 1960s. I love KC, but I don't think that they need to be in the R&RHOF, and don't think it's a crime that they're not already in. They are only putatively "rock" anyway.
Based on the nominating criteria (current artists and all inductees) I do think that they will get nominated at some point. The constant touring and continued (moderate) commercial success has to count for something.
Eventual Nomination: yes
Eventual induction: no.
Would I vote for them? As an objective observer, probably not. But since I'm also a fan, I probably would.
Fairport Convention (or Richard Thompson)
The R&RHOF is US-centric. Fairport Convention was not as popular here as in the UK, and it's still not like they were all that popular there, either. Pretty much the same applies to Richard Thompson.
Eventual nomination: no.
Would I vote for them? No.
Great artist whose career was cut short and who left behind three excellent, critically acclaimed albums that nobody other than hard-core music fans knows, apart from whatever songs appeared in commercials.
Eventual nomination: wouldn't totally rule it out.
Would I vote for him? no.
Wilco raises an interesting issue, which is what should the R&RHOF do with "rock" artists of the 2000s, considering how few of them exist that anybody other than a small cult of fans cares about, and the genre itself has receded from prominence in the popular music landscape. Does the R&RHOF adjust its nominations/induction criteria accordingly, or does it double down on not being limited to "rock?" I think they've already kind of answered the question, which is that - for now, anyway - they're doubling down on non-rock, which hurts the case for Wilco; Wilco's best hope is to be graded on a curve. I would say that Wilco's candidacy would have no possibility/credibility at all, were it not for Yankee Hotel Foxtrot and its continued appearance on best-of lists. But still - no big sales for albums (taking into account when the albums were released; practically every established band on a major label was selling at least 500,000 copies in the late 1990s/early 2000s), no hit singles; no album tracks that ever became popular. Their profile is more like bands that have not gotten in than ones that did. But were they one of the more important rock bands of the last 25 years? *I* think so (even if I think they weren't good for much in the last 10 years except for being an excellent live show) but unless the Rock Hall starts to get concerned about continuing to acknowledge rock, Wilco's prospects don't look great. Also, Jeff Tweedy doesn't seem to have ingratiated himself to many in the industry, which matters.
Eventual nomination: Sure, I can see that happening someday.
Eventual induction: Probably not
Would I vote for them? Maybe (their career is not over), in a world where the R&RHOF was principally concerned with rock. As the R&RHOF actually exists ? Probably not - they just never really got over the hump, in terms of breaking through, but also never really capitalized on the early signs of being innovative/trailblazing.
I personally think that they made several excellent albums but they never were big enough or influential enough for the R&RHOF.
Eventual nomination: Wouldn't totally rule it out, but leaning towards "no."
Would I vote for them? no.
Stylistics (if the Spinners get in)
Don't know much about them.
The Smiths were very influential and also had a number of hits. They also have an album that keeps appearing on best-of lists. They're hurt by having less US than UK success/buzz.
Eventual nomination: They've already been nominated twice so far, and I expect will be again.
Eventual induction? I would hope so, but am not sure.
Would I vote for them? Yes.