As long as there are enthusiasts out there with AM transmitters in sheds, there will be an interest. Yes, a minority interest, but an interest nonetheless. We are a dying breed, but certainly not dead yet!
Medium wave (or short wave) is not going to disappear in the short or medium term.
The short answer must be not very long at all.
The long answer is the band is all but dead already with closing down soon signs on most of the few remaining stations. The local Asian and faith format stations will continue for a little while longer but even several of those have closed on AM a concentrated on DAB and online, especially around London.
The next significant closure event is expected around April when all of the BBC Radio 4 Medium wave transmitters are expected to close followed by the Long wave service.
BBC Radio 5 Live on 693 and 909 KHZ was announced as going withing two years earlier last year so it's closure is likely sometime later this year.
With no other national sports station left on AM after that Talk sport on 1053 and 1089 KHZ will almost certainly surrender their licence soon after like Absolute radio already did early last year citing very few remaining listeners.
That just leaves a few community stations left which could continue for a few more years if they want to although with the band otherwise empty in this part of the world, it's unlikely it would be more than a few. As community stations usually get licenced in 5 year blocks, it's possible that OFCOM could decide not to renew any AM licences so they would have to close when their current licence period expires.
On the other hand, Medium wave is of limited practical use for todays mobile communications world due to the long wavelengths/bag antennas. That could lead OFCOM deciding that the spectrum is of little value so any smaller stations that really want to continue to use it can continue indefinitely.
It could be opened up for amateur (Ham) radio users on a shared basis (there will still be stations coming in at night from other countries) although again, due to the wavelengths it wouldn't be practical for use by most users who tend to prefer the higher HF bands like 7 MHZ and 14 MHZ where smaller garden antennas work much better.
It's all coming about very quickly now.
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