No, there literally are not... that is the flaw in all of this.Archived Message
Posted by uofi1998 on January 29, 2024, 11:36:06, in reply to "Of course there are*"
There are not 'thousands' of data points that demonstrate what the Lions should've done on 4th and 2 at SF's 30 yard line in the 3rd quarter with a (edit: 14) point lead in the NFC Championship Game with Jared Goff at QB and Josh Reynolds as the slot receiver. That scenario has never existed in the history of football. There are models that are created based on similar scenarios that, in and of themselves, are inherently flawed because they cannot possibly account for that particular scenario in that point in time.
There are literally not 'thousands' of data points because for 50 years, teams would've kicked a FG there without a second thought. Only recently has the trend changed where teams go for it more often.
Now, how do teams model the *exact* personnel they have available in that *exact* situation and that *exact* time against the *exact* personnel the opponent has?
If you're relying upon 'thousands of data points' in that scenario, that means you're just assigning player ratings and playing Madden. And that may be fine in your mind, but don't lecture me and tell me there are data points that account for that situation. There simply are not.