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https://open.substack.com/pub/cfbnumbers/p/2025-cfb-season-qb-advanced-stats?r=22aof&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

Last Year's Stats:



See the upper right...

While is sample size was on the smaller side, Demond Williams Jr. flashed his potential for Washington last season. His 78.1% completion percentage was 5 percentage points higher than any other QB in the FBS last season (min 100+ attempts). Incoming Duke transfer QB Darian Mensah takes the crown for EPA/Play + CPOE, which makes Manny Diaz portal addition all that more impressive. You’ll see later on this article, I am a big fan of what Mensah can do on the field.

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This Year's QB Rankings



How many points does this QB add to their team?
To answer this question, I built myself a linear mixed effect model that attempts to predict how many points a QB adds to his team. Using ESPN’s points above average metric as the dependent variable, I set QB plays (in a single game) and game number (what game number it is for the QB in the course of his career) as the fixed effects, while I set the QB themselves and the opponent they are playing as the random effects.

The reason I do this is we know QBs have varying skill levels and we also know opponents have varying levels of skill so this allows us to capture a baseline performance for those individual QBs/Defenses. I have also added a weight to the model so that more recent performances have more of an effect on the QBs baseline performance.

Once that runs, we can look at the QBs point estimate which will tell us how many points the QB adds to their team, while accounting for their in game usage, overall career experience, adjusted for who they have played throughout their career.