He's like the one Jackson brother from the Jackson 5 cartoon*

Posted by ATL on August 23, 2025, 10:41:12, in reply to "in other football news, this afro is extremely legitimate"

Previous Message http://x.com/UTEPFB/status/1958603715222331854 this guy is moving up my list of cool college football players. Previous Message “We are old and tired and just want to be taken care of.” - Republican voter, Dec. 2024.

We better win in Durham….we’re going*

Posted by TarheelIllini on August 23, 2025, 11:59:40, in reply to "KFord prediction matching up with the Vegas over/under"

Previous Message http://x.com/KFordRatings/status/1958922645447053575 (not gambling advice) Previous Message Recrudescence

i think we win 8

Posted by illiniranger on August 22, 2025, 11:33:09, in reply to "KFord prediction matching up with the Vegas over/under"

Think we start slow out of the gate and lose 2 of 3 to Duke/IU/USC and finish 5-2 after that. Previous Message http://x.com/KFordRatings/status/1958922645447053575 (not gambling advice) Previous Message

So… that means the Big Ten will cave on the SEC’s playoff plan?…*

Posted by uofi1998 on August 21, 2025, 16:18:12, in reply to "SEC caves, will move to 9 conference games next year"

Previous Message https://x.com/BryanDFischer/status/1958635941200863529 Previous Message You hear me talking, hillbilly boy?

Beer only vendors that are cash only is my main wish

Posted by jfinsocal on August 23, 2025, 10:29:25, in reply to "Have we discussed the new Memorial Stadium Concessions?"

Know it's not gonna happen but this approach results in a line that moves so faster when you don't have to dick around with credit card transactions. Previous Message I like that there's a food cart featuring water. I think the beer carts will be more popular. Which ones are deucer faves?

The pizza I had there last year was vile*

Posted by bjl63 on August 21, 2025, 16:43:01, in reply to "Have we discussed the new Memorial Stadium Concessions?"

Previous Message I like that there's a food cart featuring water. I think the beer carts will be more popular. Which ones are deucer faves?

a water monster is not a food cart, if that's what you're referring to...

Posted by longsnapper on August 21, 2025, 16:41:55, in reply to "Have we discussed the new Memorial Stadium Concessions?"

It's the giant water tank with eight spigots you've probably seen at beer events. Previous Message I like that there's a food cart featuring water. I think the beer carts will be more popular. Which ones are deucer faves? Lots of puns, no real answers

Hey look! Oskee Favorites! :-)

Posted by osklister on August 21, 2025, 16:05:06, in reply to "Have we discussed the new Memorial Stadium Concessions?"

All the probation or self appointed NC??

Posted by redgrange77 on August 21, 2025, 5:54:49, in reply to "the Auburn national titles thing is very amusing *"

Previous Message Previous Message

All the probation or self appointed NC??

Posted by redgrange77 on August 21, 2025, 5:54:15, in reply to "the Auburn national titles thing is very amusing *"

Previous Message Previous Message

Future star*

Posted by UofIL6 on August 19, 2025, 22:03:45, in reply to "Interview with mini-Bielema"

Previous Message ?si=Jn9Eb152m7veo4fk

[Tom Hanks in Big hand raise\] I don’t get it.

Posted by Carl Spackler on August 18, 2025, 17:41:06, in reply to "student season tix sold out* "

This isn’t a team that’s been good for an extended period of time. And isn’t ticket revenue a relatively small portion of overall revenue? Don’t understand capping student tickets. Create a great atmosphere and develop more lifetime fans. Previous Message Previous Message

Like any good Illini fan, Fornelli's got his cup in place.

Posted by ATL on August 20, 2025, 6:12:24, in reply to "Cover 3 did their win totals for the first part of the b1g today"

Go Illini! Previous Message They used the Fanduel o/u of 8.5 - Tom Fornelli took the under (he thought we were at 8 wins) - Bud Elliott took the over (said he saw 10 wins) - Danny Kanell took the over (had the under but Bud changed his mind) - Chip Patterson took the over (has 9 wins) https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/cover-3-college-football/id1257913963?i=1000722538480 “We are old and tired and just want to be taken care of.” - Republican voter, Dec. 2024.

Luke stays healthy, the OL/DL are in upper half of league, TO ratio

Posted by bjl63 on August 18, 2025, 15:50:55, in reply to "What are your top 3 at least somewhat plausible things that could make this a 9-3 or 10-2 team?"

Honest question for you: who are your two-three losses??

Posted by osklister on August 18, 2025, 15:39:39, in reply to "What are your top 3 at least somewhat plausible things that could make this a 9-3 or 10-2 team?"

Hey, I'm as cockeyed-optimist as anyone: right now I'll say tOSU has to be considered a big potential loss. Is there another one (or two) out there that I'm overlooking? Duke, IU, Washington, Wisco? Totally curious. TIA. As to the below, I want a go-to receiver. Would I want Feagin to be our bell-cow ball carrier? Yep, but I don't think Bret goes for a single back. That's JMHO. Previous Message 1) Someone emerges as an All Big Ten (ish) caliber WR. Doesn’t matter who it is, but a difference maker in the WR room would change things quite a bit. 2) Curt Neal and James Thompson end up being closer to difference makers than just solid rotational pieces. 3) Feagin stays healthy and forces his way into being a legit RB1 by looking more like the guy he did as a freshman. I think Laughery will be solid but Feagin is the upside play.

injuries to opponents. OL run blocks effectively. turnover fairy*

Posted by Poldark on August 18, 2025, 14:01:12, in reply to "What are your top 3 at least somewhat plausible things that could make this a 9-3 or 10-2 team?"

Previous Message Mine: 1) Someone emerges as an All Big Ten (ish) caliber WR. Doesn’t matter who it is, but a difference maker in the WR room would change things quite a bit. 2) Curt Neal and James Thompson end up being closer to difference makers than just solid rotational pieces. 3) Feagin stays healthy and forces his way into being a legit RB1 by looking more like the guy he did as a freshman. I think Laughery will be solid but Feagin is the upside play. Social Misfit who wants to coach Illinois women's basketball. "Thanks for everyone for the advice (exception: Chilango)"

Bellcow running back emerges; Good health; D-Line transfers show out*

Posted by AintHatin on August 18, 2025, 13:54:27, in reply to "What are your top 3 at least somewhat plausible things that could make this a 9-3 or 10-2 team?"

Previous Message Mine: 1) Someone emerges as an All Big Ten (ish) caliber WR. Doesn’t matter who it is, but a difference maker in the WR room would change things quite a bit. 2) Curt Neal and James Thompson end up being closer to difference makers than just solid rotational pieces. 3) Feagin stays healthy and forces his way into being a legit RB1 by looking more like the guy he did as a freshman. I think Laughery will be solid but Feagin is the upside play.

Luke is better than Kittner in 01, I think plausible, X.Scott is better than 22 Quan, on pace to be

Posted by JacobRDaugherty on August 18, 2025, 13:35:09, in reply to "What are your top 3 at least somewhat plausible things that could make this a 9-3 or 10-2 team?"

Jacas has a Whitney type season and solidifies himself as a 1st round pick Previous Message Mine: 1) Someone emerges as an All Big Ten (ish) caliber WR. Doesn’t matter who it is, but a difference maker in the WR room would change things quite a bit. 2) Curt Neal and James Thompson end up being closer to difference makers than just solid rotational pieces. 3) Feagin stays healthy and forces his way into being a legit RB1 by looking more like the guy he did as a freshman. I think Laughery will be solid but Feagin is the upside play.

the things we can control for, i agree with your #1

Posted by illiniranger on August 18, 2025, 12:50:27, in reply to "What are your top 3 at least somewhat plausible things that could make this a 9-3 or 10-2 team?"

WR play will be how we generate big plays this year. one not mentioned so far is turnover battle. that can be difficult to control for, but if we win 9 or 10 games we will need a big edge in turnovers. Previous Message Mine: 1) Someone emerges as an All Big Ten (ish) caliber WR. Doesn’t matter who it is, but a difference maker in the WR room would change things quite a bit. 2) Curt Neal and James Thompson end up being closer to difference makers than just solid rotational pieces. 3) Feagin stays healthy and forces his way into being a legit RB1 by looking more like the guy he did as a freshman. I think Laughery will be solid but Feagin is the upside play.

OL stays healthy and Altmyer plays at last year’s level or slightly above*

Posted by snipes824 on August 18, 2025, 12:41:37, in reply to "What are your top 3 at least somewhat plausible things that could make this a 9-3 or 10-2 team?"

Previous Message Mine: 1) Someone emerges as an All Big Ten (ish) caliber WR. Doesn’t matter who it is, but a difference maker in the WR room would change things quite a bit. 2) Curt Neal and James Thompson end up being closer to difference makers than just solid rotational pieces. 3) Feagin stays healthy and forces his way into being a legit RB1 by looking more like the guy he did as a freshman. I think Laughery will be solid but Feagin is the upside play.

OL, OL, and OL. If they actually look like a group that is cohesive and can...

Posted by uofi1998 on August 18, 2025, 12:36:23, in reply to "What are your top 3 at least somewhat plausible things that could make this a 9-3 or 10-2 team?"

QB/OL stays healthy, one of the transfer WRs is a DUDE, internal DL/DT is serviceable*

Posted by UofIL6 on August 18, 2025, 12:17:53, in reply to "What are your top 3 at least somewhat plausible things that could make this a 9-3 or 10-2 team?"

Previous Message Mine: 1) Someone emerges as an All Big Ten (ish) caliber WR. Doesn’t matter who it is, but a difference maker in the WR room would change things quite a bit. 2) Curt Neal and James Thompson end up being closer to difference makers than just solid rotational pieces. 3) Feagin stays healthy and forces his way into being a legit RB1 by looking more like the guy he did as a freshman. I think Laughery will be solid but Feagin is the upside play.

They've got USC as a PAC-12 team, too.*

Posted by Illiniphil on August 18, 2025, 8:33:30, in reply to "CBS with Illinois in the Las Vegas Bowl against PAC-12 foe UCLA. "

Previous Message https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/bowls/predictions/# Previous Message

James Thompson out there looking like Akiem Hicks*

Posted by opossum jenkins on August 14, 2025, 4:33:47, in reply to "BTN is at Illinois practice today"

Previous Message Training camp show will be on at 7 pm central

the commissioner is also there

Posted by Poldark on August 13, 2025, 15:02:16, in reply to "BTN is at Illinois practice today"

Johnny "sports gambling" Mateer? *

Posted by illini on August 13, 2025, 10:10:50, in reply to "QBs based on EPA (Expected Points Added)"

Previous Message https://open.substack.com/pub/cfbnumbers/p/2025-cfb-season-qb-advanced-stats?r=22aof&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email Last Year's Stats: See the upper right... While is sample size was on the smaller side, Demond Williams Jr. flashed his potential for Washington last season. His 78.1% completion percentage was 5 percentage points higher than any other QB in the FBS last season (min 100+ attempts). Incoming Duke transfer QB Darian Mensah takes the crown for EPA/Play + CPOE, which makes Manny Diaz portal addition all that more impressive. You’ll see later on this article, I am a big fan of what Mensah can do on the field. --- This Year's QB Rankings How many points does this QB add to their team? To answer this question, I built myself a linear mixed effect model that attempts to predict how many points a QB adds to his team. Using ESPN’s points above average metric as the dependent variable, I set QB plays (in a single game) and game number (what game number it is for the QB in the course of his career) as the fixed effects, while I set the QB themselves and the opponent they are playing as the random effects. The reason I do this is we know QBs have varying skill levels and we also know opponents have varying levels of skill so this allows us to capture a baseline performance for those individual QBs/Defenses. I have also added a weight to the model so that more recent performances have more of an effect on the QBs baseline performance. Once that runs, we can look at the QBs point estimate which will tell us how many points the QB adds to their team, while accounting for their in game usage, overall career experience, adjusted for who they have played throughout their career.

Come on...Carson Beck?*

Posted by ATL on August 13, 2025, 9:58:04, in reply to "QBs based on EPA (Expected Points Added)"

Previous Message https://open.substack.com/pub/cfbnumbers/p/2025-cfb-season-qb-advanced-stats?r=22aof&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email Last Year's Stats: See the upper right... While is sample size was on the smaller side, Demond Williams Jr. flashed his potential for Washington last season. His 78.1% completion percentage was 5 percentage points higher than any other QB in the FBS last season (min 100+ attempts). Incoming Duke transfer QB Darian Mensah takes the crown for EPA/Play + CPOE, which makes Manny Diaz portal addition all that more impressive. You’ll see later on this article, I am a big fan of what Mensah can do on the field. --- This Year's QB Rankings How many points does this QB add to their team? To answer this question, I built myself a linear mixed effect model that attempts to predict how many points a QB adds to his team. Using ESPN’s points above average metric as the dependent variable, I set QB plays (in a single game) and game number (what game number it is for the QB in the course of his career) as the fixed effects, while I set the QB themselves and the opponent they are playing as the random effects. The reason I do this is we know QBs have varying skill levels and we also know opponents have varying levels of skill so this allows us to capture a baseline performance for those individual QBs/Defenses. I have also added a weight to the model so that more recent performances have more of an effect on the QBs baseline performance. Once that runs, we can look at the QBs point estimate which will tell us how many points the QB adds to their team, while accounting for their in game usage, overall career experience, adjusted for who they have played throughout their career. “We are old and tired and just want to be taken care of.” - Republican voter, Dec. 2024.

That whole article is nonsense. Applying an EPA to a single player worthless, since

Posted by longsnapper on August 13, 2025, 9:17:17, in reply to "QBs based on EPA (Expected Points Added)"

You can't possibly design an experiment with enough control and have enough similar plays/situations to come to any kind of metric even approaching something that's useful. Previous Message https://open.substack.com/pub/cfbnumbers/p/2025-cfb-season-qb-advanced-stats?r=22aof&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email Last Year's Stats: See the upper right... While is sample size was on the smaller side, Demond Williams Jr. flashed his potential for Washington last season. His 78.1% completion percentage was 5 percentage points higher than any other QB in the FBS last season (min 100+ attempts). Incoming Duke transfer QB Darian Mensah takes the crown for EPA/Play + CPOE, which makes Manny Diaz portal addition all that more impressive. You’ll see later on this article, I am a big fan of what Mensah can do on the field. --- This Year's QB Rankings How many points does this QB add to their team? To answer this question, I built myself a linear mixed effect model that attempts to predict how many points a QB adds to his team. Using ESPN’s points above average metric as the dependent variable, I set QB plays (in a single game) and game number (what game number it is for the QB in the course of his career) as the fixed effects, while I set the QB themselves and the opponent they are playing as the random effects. The reason I do this is we know QBs have varying skill levels and we also know opponents have varying levels of skill so this allows us to capture a baseline performance for those individual QBs/Defenses. I have also added a weight to the model so that more recent performances have more of an effect on the QBs baseline performance. Once that runs, we can look at the QBs point estimate which will tell us how many points the QB adds to their team, while accounting for their in game usage, overall career experience, adjusted for who they have played throughout their career. Lots of puns, no real answers

Probably not a big deal .. at least the camp injuries so far have been freshman*

Posted by ijustkrushalot on August 12, 2025, 17:11:38, in reply to "Freshman RB John Forster is out for the season"

Previous Message Hopefully not a sign of things to come

Where did we end up in the "" luck "" category? *

Posted by osklister on August 12, 2025, 9:26:23, in reply to "The Athletic: How the 2025 college football season could go wrong for every preseason AP Top 25 team"

That's gotta be quantifiable. Previous Message ... matching 2024’s 10-3 record after ranking 60th in the country in defense and 63rd in offense in 2024.

Going to need to be a good deal better on offense after losing our top 2 targets. gulp.*

Posted by LovetheChief on August 12, 2025, 9:23:23, in reply to "The Athletic: How the 2025 college football season could go wrong for every preseason AP Top 25 team"

Previous Message $ https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6545333/2025/08/12/college-football-preseason-top-25-weaknesses/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983&userId=5764520&source=dailyemail No. 12 Illinois Coach Bret Bielema has done a great job this offseason pumping up his team, one of the most experienced in the country. But here’s the thing: The Illini don’t just need to be as good as last year. They need to be a good deal better to have any chance of matching 2024’s 10-3 record after ranking 60th in the country in defense and 63rd in offense in 2024. Guess I didn't realize we were that low ranked in both categories.

By yards? Probably. By advanced stats that control for quality of opponent, game situation, etc the

Posted by illiniranger on August 12, 2025, 9:14:22, in reply to "The Athletic: How the 2025 college football season could go wrong for every preseason AP Top 25 team"

O was pretty good, I believe it clocked around 25th. Previous Message $ https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6545333/2025/08/12/college-football-preseason-top-25-weaknesses/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983&userId=5764520&source=dailyemail No. 12 Illinois Coach Bret Bielema has done a great job this offseason pumping up his team, one of the most experienced in the country. But here’s the thing: The Illini don’t just need to be as good as last year. They need to be a good deal better to have any chance of matching 2024’s 10-3 record after ranking 60th in the country in defense and 63rd in offense in 2024. Guess I didn't realize we were that low ranked in both categories.

What would the most hyped season in years be without some trepidation based on…

Posted by uofi1998 on August 12, 2025, 8:32:39, in reply to "The Athletic: How the 2025 college football season could go wrong for every preseason AP Top 25 team"

I love it. Grow the chip on the shoulder.*

Posted by Warrin'_Illini on August 12, 2025, 9:15:20, in reply to "Most overrated team in the top 25?"

Previous Message https://sports.yahoo.com/article/espns-computer-says-most-overrated-191805758.html Previous Message Calendar time for Buddy!

We finally get recognized for something!!!

Posted by osklister on August 12, 2025, 8:28:52, in reply to "Most overrated team in the top 25?"

The sentiment I've gathered here is that we agree*

Posted by AintHatin on August 12, 2025, 8:19:08, in reply to "Most overrated team in the top 25?"

Previous Message https://sports.yahoo.com/article/espns-computer-says-most-overrated-191805758.html Previous Message

Put that on the bulletin board *

Posted by ATL on August 12, 2025, 7:45:35, in reply to "Most overrated team in the top 25?"

Previous Message https://sports.yahoo.com/article/espns-computer-says-most-overrated-191805758.html Previous Message “We are old and tired and just want to be taken care of.” - Republican voter, Dec. 2024.

Good*

Posted by longsnapper on August 12, 2025, 7:12:13, in reply to "Most overrated team in the top 25?"

Previous Message https://sports.yahoo.com/article/espns-computer-says-most-overrated-191805758.html Previous Message Lots of puns, no real answers

I think 7-5 is the floor. There's like five coin flip games. @Duke,@IU,USC, @Wash, @Wisky

Posted by bucktownillini on August 11, 2025, 12:12:08, in reply to "Random scheduling thing I was thinking about."

The other games we should go 6-1. Previous Message I said a while back I landed on 7-5 as my prediction mostly because I think our schedule is a lot less favorable than people are making it out to be. Particularly the front loaded nature of it that could cause things to go sideways before the easy part hits. In our first 6 games against P4 opponents, we have 4 road games - two we will likely be underdogs in (IU, UW) and one we’ll only be a slight favorite in (Duke) - and our only 2 home games will most likely be around a pick’em (USC) and one where we’ll be a multi score underdog in (OSU). And in thinking about it more, it’s all about the home vs. away splits happened for us this year. We have an even mix of 5 home and 5 road games versus P4 opponents this year, but what if you flipped them as shown below: WIU Duke WMU Indiana @USC Purdue @Ohio State Washington @Rutgers @Maryland Wisconsin @Northwestern Playing the same opponents and with the same number of home and away games, I think I might increase my prediction by 2 wins if we had this schedule instead. Sleepy cold weather November home games at Memorial Stadium vs. Rutgers/MD/NW is hardly a huge advantage compared to playing on the road at 3 of the least impactful home field advantages in the conference. Conversely, flipping those early season Duke and IU games to be at home would be hugely beneficial, as would not having to play at Washington or Wisconsin. USC becomes a more likely loss so that’s the biggest one that has a negative impact, but then you just take a near certain OSU loss to begin with and simply move that to using up one of the away slots. This is obviously a pointless thought exercise, but this is what happens inside my head once August syndrome kicks in.

I've got to believe it's Hampton

Posted by UIHuskie on August 11, 2025, 11:35:26, in reply to "who do we think the backup to Altmyer is? i haven't seen much *"

He's really limited but has at least played a meaningful amount of snaps in college. Previous Message Previous Message

The NIU kid then Boyd. *

Posted by assassin on August 11, 2025, 11:34:50, in reply to "who do we think the backup to Altmyer is? i haven't seen much *"

Previous Message Previous Message Brandon Schrock of Laredo, Texas, told the federal government that his employer was “poop,” and his occupation was “pooper.”

last year by the advanced metrics we were ~ 25th in O, 50th in D, and 7th in ST

Posted by illiniranger on August 11, 2025, 11:17:40, in reply to "Also #12 in the Preseason AP Poll"

if BB can get the O and D to be around 25th and hold ST constant, i think we can squeeze out 9 wins and be in the CFP discussion. but 12th seems too high to me. USC and IU games are interesting, advanced metrics love those teams, i don't. If they are actually ~ 13th - 15th in the country, i think we take two Ls there and the CFP dream dies fairly early this season. Previous Message https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll Previous Message

Roughy is the captain of the ACJ fan club. He is puffing him up. I hope he is right*

Posted by JacobRDaugherty on August 8, 2025, 18:03:09, in reply to "Matt Stevens just told me that Alex Capka-Jones has been first up in WR drills*"

Previous Message Previous Message

I N I !!!!

Posted by osklister on August 8, 2025, 13:37:34, in reply to "Three More Weeks……I-L-L !! *"

Remember the guy who sat out the Spring game at Tenn for more money? Did it for family reasons. :-0

Posted by osklister on August 8, 2025, 13:53:14, in reply to "Loren just said Altmyer is making $1.1M*"

We're getting off cheap*

Posted by EffinIllini on August 8, 2025, 8:47:07, in reply to "Loren just said Altmyer is making $1.1M*"

Seems low, TBH*

Posted by Blazer on August 7, 2025, 16:23:19, in reply to "Loren just said Altmyer is making $1.1M*"

Previous Message Previous Message

Beat Western Illinois.

Posted by osklister on August 6, 2025, 17:18:51, in reply to "Ohio State game sold out. Wear Orange*"