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and a combined 4-17 against Michigan/OSU (with 3 of those wins coming against mediocre Michigan teams).

Yeah, he consistently had them in the conversation, but there was more than enough evidence that he had reached his ceiling, barring a switch flipping like Mack Brown at Texas (who was similarly bad against elite competition until he finally broke through in 2005). All that said, if you're going to make a move, have a plan.