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Five locks ahead of us:
Michigan
Duke
Arizona
UConn
Florida

Teams fighting for the last three spots on the 2 line (and I think this is probably the current order):
Houston
Michigan State
Illinois
Purdue
Iowa State
Nebraska

If we beat Maryland, I would be VERY surprised if we fall behind any of the teams just below (Alabama, Texas Tech, Virginia, Kansas, Gonzaga), even if they win their conference tournaments.

The big question to me is whether the Committee will treat an Illinois/Purdue quarterfinal game as a playoff for the last two seed. It shouldn't be; we have a better resume across the board and won @ Purdue. But I do think that's not out of the realm of possibility.