2. Conservative NeverTrumpers. A pretty small group of old guard GOP.
3. Trump Republicans. Solid politically active GOP voters that are still on board with Trump's policies
4. Trump voters that don't approve of his policies.
The smart GOP political calculus is that you're immediately ruling out group 1. There's only one Trump (sorry Don Jr.). People will try to keep MAGA going, but no one has the gravitas of Trump.
So, you need 2+4>3. Every Tucker and Megyn and Rogan you lose increases 4. I think the 3 side of the equation is still probably 15-20% in the lead, but that's only a swing of half that needed to flip the equation. The Iran war is massively unpopular. Self-inflicted high gas prices are massively unpopular.
"the alchemy of the tartar sauce and cheese with the fish combined with the buttery steamed bun is so good." - Sounder re: a Filet O Fish
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on April 9, 2026, 12:05:18, in reply to "