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UKR still not strong enough to go on the offensive. Think it will continue to drag on.

Rumors of Russian "mobilization." Don't think that will work for them. Most of their equipment has been badly attrited, dismounted infantry assaults will not be enough, especially in the dislocated manner and small numbers the Russians use them for.

i've said this many times, the war is not being fought at high enough intensity to create the conditions for either Army to collapse. Both can replace their losses at the current pace. Russians basically stagger forward about two understrength battalions worth of troops a day, they more or less get wiped out. Not a high enough loss rate to be irreplaceable.

Contrast to the Normandy offensive. Allies and Germans were losing about 7000 per day per side. That's an infantry division worth of losses every three days. That type of loss rate will cause collapses. Nowhere near that for either side in the current situation.

Another comparison would be the 100 days offensive that ended WWI. both sides lost over 1 million men in 100 days. that's about 10,000 a day for each side. Ukraine war is being fought at maybe 1000 casualties total per day between the two. 1000 probably an overestimate.

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