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A reflection analyzing the past and the present.
Posted by Marco Antonio Jacob
on October 19, 2021, 5:19 am
Looking at the history of COT , non-commercials once had a SHORT NET position of 113,412 contracts on September 18, 2018, when OI was 400,854 contracts, today they are LONG NET position with 47,618 contracts with OI of 384,682 contracts. Currently, we know that the world has practiced the largest Quantitative Easing in its history , huge injection of money to the population. We will have the seasons 2021/22 and 2022/23 with gigantic total deficits of world production, the largest in the history of coffee and these deficits are concentrated in Arabica coffee, Brazil has zero government stocks to make any supply, in the past, always in the Brazilian government kept large stocks of coffee, today no more. [i]If we correct the prices of the historical top of 1977 by the American CPI, we will have a value close to US$15.50 per pound, when today we are at US$2.00.
Selling non-existent commodities in this scenario is very imprudent.
- A reflection analyzing the past and the present. - Marco Antonio Jacob October 19, 2021, 5:19 am
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