If true, this would mean that Brazilian coffee demand is demand completely inelastic and that prices aren't yet high enough to induce true demand rationing (KC is up 300% since 2019 in BRL terms). Consider what this could mean if the world needs to ration 10-15mln bags of coffee of demand over the next 18 months!
My guess is that USDA hasn't a clue what consumption will be in Brazil, as this price movement in BRL terms is basically unprecedented (it's the largest rally in BRL terms since at least the 1980s). Still, it's an interesting thought exercise and the demand data will need to be scrutinized by coffee analysts in the future to determine sensitivity to price increases.
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