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Re: Sincal 2022 forecast, Maja Twitter
Agree GT, the Sincal figures are by most calculations too low, and I am making this clear in all my Twitter feed as well, but the problem with figures is that lots of people in the market have been happy to play up the Rabobank and Ecom number - glad to hear you are not one of them - but in the interest of fairness and objectivity, if the one extreme end of figures is widely circulated so should the other too. Ever since I first started covering coffee 27 years ago the theory has been that Exporters/Investment banks deliberately set figures well above real expectations for sake of own interests, and producers and growers group do the same in the other direction to balance it out. I don't think it's too far from the truth, and since we now have the most likely highest and lowest 2022 figures in - both from sources with very vested own interests at stake - I would expect other figures to come in around the middle, i.e. +/- 51M bags, which I believe is a more realistic median figure.
*And while I at onset of flowering did match your 20M number for Conilon, I really don't think that is realistic any longer, too many flowering and other problems PLUS that Espirito Santos is in reverse cycle and entering OFF-year crop in 2022.