I think what matters is not the absolute level of crop size, but data consistency. Conab will be low. USDA/Ecom will be high. You should look at YoY deltas from the same group to see how they align with others. Personally I true my balance sheet up to USDA's numbers because they have the most transparent balance sheet and have no bone to pick with price. The problem with USDA is they're slow to release so using their numbers in real time is pointless. You need to have your own work/research on crop sizes and demand.