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Re: CECAFE 01/18/2022
Simple more supply is bearish. Below is the relationship between final crop size and cumulative exports from July-December. Shipments through December 31st would suggest a crop size above 58 MM bags, net of Arabica and Robusta. Every month this fit improves and right now it is suggesting the crop is getting bigger not smaller. If this trend of shipments doesnt die down quickly it will increase the knock on effect for what market participants think of 22/23 crop as well. I wont pretend to know how this will all play out in the coming months...perhaps shipments fall off a cliff but right now it's a serious flag for a bull.