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Re: CECAFE 01/18/2022
Thanks - I agree with your assessment of 2014. The only similarity I see is IF exports keep this up for another month or 2 the market will have to increase its assessment of crop size, not necessarily carryover stocks. The market missed by 10-15 MM bags in 2014 - this year we're talking 2-4 MM perhaps. I also agree that Conab has done far better in Arabica in recent years and that they're terrible in Robusta. I think that in 2 months however exports will be a far better metric of crop size than any market participant's.