Although, on this one I wouldn't disagree with the main thrust of what O'Neill is saying. That's the thing with contrarians - when both conservatives and their 'left' and liberal 'opponents' are all banging the same war drum, there's a good chance that a contrarian will have it right.

For an intelligent take on the problems facing the conservatives in the Kremlin, though, I would recommend this piece by Volodymyr Ishchenko: https://truthout.org/articles/a-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-could-destabilize-russias-political-order/