Yes, the forecast for La Manzanilla keeps shifting. Ventusky now shows sustained winds up to 50mph Sunday morning with gusts over 100 mph, direction seems to change every hour. Ventusky predicts landfall 1 to 2 pm Sunday just north of Perula. This would mean 120 mph winds directly into the Perula beach.

On the other hand, Windy shows the storm staying off shore past Puerto Vallarta and making landfall near Mazatlan.

I asked Google AI which path is more likely:

Based on official meteorological guidance, the tracking shown by Ventusky and Zoom Earth—indicating a landfall near Punta Pérula, Jalisco and continuing over Tomatlán toward Bahía de Banderas—is much more likely.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued a Hurricane Warning spanning from Punta San Telmo north to El Roblito, explicitly encompassing the entire coast of Jalisco and Nayarit.

Tracking Comparison

Ventusky & Zoom Earth

Landfall near Punta Pérula, Jalisco on early Sunday, tracking northward directly across Tomatlán and into the Bahía de Banderas / Puerto Vallarta region. High (Favored Consensus). Aligns directly with official NHC advisories, the American GFS model, and global AI-driven models.

Windy (ECMWF Model)

Remaining entirely offshore, tracking parallel to the coast before approaching Mazatlán. Low. While early ECMWF ensembles suggested an offshore track, the model shifted eastward toward a direct inland landfall over Jalisco as steering currents solidified.

Why Landfall is Preffered

Hurricane Simon is being steered by strong southerly mid-level flow wedged between a high-pressure system over southern Mexico and a deep atmospheric trough to the west. This atmospheric setup is actively forcing the storm on a rigid northward trajectory straight into the west-central coast of Mexico.
Because Simon has intensified into a dangerous Category 4 hurricane, any coastal interests in Jalisco and Nayarit should prepare for severe eyewall impacts, extreme wind gusts, and torrential rainfall.