Did you, in your hurry to post disagreement, somehow miss this explicit exception: "...barring an actual direct causal chain..."?

Obviously a phenomenon's direct antecedent causes are not included in Hume's assertion about causal non-conjunctivity. A similar-but-unconnected event in the past has no influence over the event being considered. That similarity provides good, common sense reasons to assume the event under consideration will proceeded largely like those similar events in the past...but that's nowhere near the same thing as stating that it must.