My dad lost that lottery
and it messed him up for the rest of his life.  Previous Message boomers I think about going through a draft to be shipped off to a place like Vietnam. Fuck. That.  Previous Message I get that it's beyond a remote possibility, but it's way, way too ghoulish even for me.  Previous Message The caterwauling by some would be delicious.  Previous Message  Previous Message  Previous Message 1) Iran built a military that a lot of techbro/futurists have talked about, specifically Musk. A lot of cheap drones, a lot of ballistic missiles, heavy reliance on Special Operations Forces (SOF) and irregular forces. 2) that military got torn apart by the Israelis starting about a year ago with the targeting of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and continued through the destruction of Hizbullah by both covert and overt means (there was an effective ground offensive in Southern Lebanon by the Israeli general purpose force while the Mossad and Israeli Air Force conducted targeted strikes against Hizbullah leadership.) 3) The Iranian response to launch one way unmanned aerial systems (OWUAS) and ballistic missiles through the fall was pretty ineffective. Almost none of the OWUAS made it to Israel (probably less than five out of hundreds) and the ballistic missile attack of 1 October hit nothing. Of note, the IRGC continued to attack Israel through Houthi proxies all through the winter and spring with ballistic missiles but never hit anything with the majority of missiles falling short or being intercepted. 4) Israeli Air Force attacks have caused significant attrition to Iran's drone and missile force in addition to their conventional air force and air defenses. The Israelis used a mix of drones and 4th Gen Aircraft (some 5th Gen) to rapidly gain air supremacy over Iran. But overwhelmingly it is piloted 4th Gen aircraft that are doing the damage. The types of aircraft some people say are irrelevant. 5) I think the lesson here is that drones and ballistic missiles are just a tool in the tool kit, it is hard to describe them as a game changer. They can be defeated and struggle to overwhelm sophisticated air defense systems, and the Israelis have done it now for about a year. Of note, outside the initial attack on Iran the Israelis have used very few drones outside of observation and targeting once they gained air supremacy through their fighter jets. The results here are pretty undeniable. 6) Israel's ability to converge effects from all the components of their military - the Army, Air Force, and SOF/intel community are why they are winning on the battlefield. It's not the bow and arrow, it's the Indian.
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Message Thread | This response ↓
few thoughts on ISR-Iran (purely defense perspective) - illiniranger June 17, 2025, 10:23:02
- BIBI CALM THE FUCK DOWN! - ATL June 24, 2025, 7:19:29
- Ceasefire timing has come and gone and missiles are still being fired.* - OB25 June 23, 2025, 23:25:45
- This is a pump and dump scheme but for wars.* - Toonces June 23, 2025, 21:04:44
- One thing’s for sure: whoever’s commanding that Army ADA unit at Al-Udeid…. - opossum jenkins June 23, 2025, 17:37:31
- Trump says Iran-Israeli ceasefire beginning in 6 hours* - CanHartlebHireSnider June 23, 2025, 17:18:54
- Trump, you idiot - illiniranger June 23, 2025, 15:12:10
- ooo - complainant June 23, 2025, 19:21:37
- Congratulations world, it's time for peace - Sounder June 23, 2025, 15:38:11
- I'm just happy we've spent hundreds of millions of dollars on this kabuki theater conflict - ATL June 23, 2025, 15:30:36
- His truths are reportedly why the pentagon sent the B-2s west as decoys - CanHartlebHireSnider June 23, 2025, 15:19:45
- It is estimated that 80% of Iranians bypass gummint internet censorship* - Stu June 23, 2025, 15:17:10
- The level of absurdity and insanity of his "truths" - Sounder June 23, 2025, 15:14:47
- What powers under article II is Trump going to enact first?* - longsnapper June 23, 2025, 12:14:34
- Ending women’s suffrage for sure * - MC June 23, 2025, 12:53:59
- Draft. I firmly believe he'll institute a draft if this goes sideways on him* - DanSaint June 23, 2025, 12:17:31
- Now that I'm firmly out of age range, I'd love to see a draft. - Warrin'_Illini June 23, 2025, 13:51:03
- I don’t think we’ll see a draft in our lifetime * - MC June 23, 2025, 12:53:28
- LOL. What? Firmly believe? * - Dilbert June 23, 2025, 12:52:02
- Stay off the drugs, son* - Ron McDon June 23, 2025, 12:26:23
- no* - VIV June 23, 2025, 12:25:30
- There's virtually no chance that happens.* - longsnapper June 23, 2025, 12:22:30
- Seems like 10 ballistic missiles launched at US Base in Qatar. Per Barack Ravid* - CanHartlebHireSnider June 23, 2025, 11:59:49
- "high risk of retaliation" - John Coctostan June 23, 2025, 8:19:16
- Glad to be the Indiana Pacers of countries. - Toonces June 22, 2025, 22:37:54
- A very important message demands your attention - ATL June 22, 2025, 21:16:20
- Germans? - timmer June 22, 2025, 21:19:41
- Yeah this is pretty grim - Stu June 22, 2025, 20:29:10
- Vance cucked again, regime change is back on the menu boys. - assassin June 22, 2025, 16:46:06
- Fresh scrutiny for the grocery clerk who recently took charge of cyber terrorism office. - complainant June 22, 2025, 14:21:51
- AI thinks Frodo is fine; just a little dusty* - Stu June 22, 2025, 13:23:01
- Get a brain! Morans - bbonb June 22, 2025, 13:20:53
- I didn’t like a lot of Biden/harris’ foreign policy but he never got enough credit for ending - Toonces June 22, 2025, 13:17:27
- RS now reporting that the intelligence community doesn’t think Iran was close to a Nuke - ATL June 22, 2025, 13:00:44
- So what could Iran do in response? - DT June 22, 2025, 11:29:47
- They will continue building a nuclear weapon - Stu June 22, 2025, 13:34:29
- Here's what The Economic Times says - complainant June 22, 2025, 12:32:47
- So apparently we are asking China to tell Iran to not shut down the Strait. - SurfTheBoneyard June 22, 2025, 11:44:38
- IMO from most to least likely - illiniranger June 22, 2025, 11:39:01
- They have lots of destructive options in front of them - timmer June 22, 2025, 11:34:37
- Lol “derp cover”.* - Toonces June 22, 2025, 11:31:39
- Heh.* - DT June 22, 2025, 11:33:29
- Q: Who if anyone can be expected to provide marginally true info on what happened? - memyselfandillini June 22, 2025, 11:23:28
- JD: “past presidents dumb. Donald smart.” No really, that’s what he just said. - ATL June 22, 2025, 10:34:05
- Went to Costco and filled up my gas car - jfinsocal June 22, 2025, 10:27:49
- OOO - KingTalkyTiki June 22, 2025, 10:24:39
- We don’t miss. Regardless of your thoughts on if we should have done this…. - LeatherneckIllini June 22, 2025, 8:12:41
- Watching DoD press conference - illiniranger June 22, 2025, 7:30:49
- Pretty solid deterrence going on right now. - Chuck Woodaby June 21, 2025, 23:05:19
- DNI had some thoughts - ATL June 21, 2025, 22:09:01
- Apparently we are just briefing Republicans in the gang of eight now.* - SurfTheBoneyard June 21, 2025, 20:48:20
- So this is what we dropped… - LeatherneckIllini June 21, 2025, 20:29:47
- Interesting… - LeatherneckIllini June 21, 2025, 20:26:44
- Did Castellanos knock a dinger yet?* - ATL June 21, 2025, 20:08:27
- I won’t pretend to know whether this was the right strategic move or not. - OB25 June 21, 2025, 19:51:01
- there's always a tweet - ECEIllinois June 21, 2025, 19:37:22
- I’m sure Iran will respond and then we will “shock and awe” and then WW3? * - MC June 21, 2025, 19:36:06
- I was assured we’d provide no offensive capabilities - John Coctostan June 21, 2025, 19:07:39
- So we just bombed Iran?* - CanHartlebHireSnider June 21, 2025, 18:51:31
- "NOW IS THE TIME FOR PEACE" after bombing Iran* - ECEIllinois June 21, 2025, 19:10:21
- Very cool* - Stu June 21, 2025, 19:09:20
- point, counterpoint - ATL June 21, 2025, 19:02:31
- The 'no wars' President only took 6 months to start a war* - UofIL6 June 21, 2025, 18:58:28
- ooo - CanHartlebHireSnider June 21, 2025, 18:52:48
- BOMBS* - assassin June 21, 2025, 18:55:56
- B2s flying to Diego Garcia has my attention. - illiniranger June 21, 2025, 11:55:43
- Nice post, BTW. Missed you* - Tooldresser June 19, 2025, 15:45:22
- ooo - JeffFrank June 19, 2025, 18:43:14
- Thanks buddy * - illiniranger June 19, 2025, 18:04:12
- bombing Iran is now also on the patened wait two weeks plan - assassin June 19, 2025, 12:50:19
- Hey Bibi, can you hold? Vladdy’s on the other line. Thanks!* - ATL June 19, 2025, 17:33:19
- 2 weeks > TACO* - JeffFrank June 19, 2025, 14:32:30
- Nope. - SurfTheBoneyard June 19, 2025, 17:19:15
- i think Trump's planning horizon is about 2 days, but it is highly volatile * - illiniranger June 19, 2025, 13:57:46
- Ole Donnie 2 weeks. Coward* - Mrap24 June 19, 2025, 13:39:46
- Looks like Israel will have to resort to the commando option* - Stu June 19, 2025, 13:32:44
- Well you don’t want it to conflict with Infrastructure Week* - Herman Blume June 19, 2025, 13:32:01
- ooo - Sammich June 19, 2025, 13:29:43
- We've gone past parody and circled around again so many times. Reality is dissolving - IlliniRunner June 19, 2025, 13:17:52
- everything is two weeks with Trump* - ECEIllinois June 19, 2025, 13:12:24
- To go or not to go what?* - timmer June 19, 2025, 13:09:15
- Seems appropriate for today - KingTalkyTiki June 18, 2025, 16:56:28
- Article about Iran missile strategy - illiniranger June 18, 2025, 16:08:45
- one of thoughts on the Israeli use of drones echoes some comments made by Leather - Tooldresser June 18, 2025, 15:03:40
- seems the admin is clearly soft peddling the bunker bomb. i'd guess they are gung ho on doing it and - John Coctostan June 18, 2025, 9:05:48
- i hate to link this, but...Tucker repeatedly dunking on ol Ted Cruz here is very funny - assassin June 17, 2025, 20:11:41
- I think this pretty simple. Tucker is a Russian asset. Iran is a Russian Proxy state. Tucker is just - JacobRDaugherty June 19, 2025, 13:21:22
- You know, there are maybe some good people there, like roofers and plumbers…. - timmer June 18, 2025, 15:48:13
- It's so obviously a stupid gotcha moment - Sounder June 18, 2025, 10:37:30
- Yes. - Chuck Woodaby June 18, 2025, 10:50:53
- Worst “Between Two Ferns” episode ever * - biclops June 18, 2025, 8:52:59
- I don't understand how anyone construes this as "dunking" - GMAW June 18, 2025, 8:37:48
- If one were to make a list of 10 most punchable, I think they both make it - opey8 June 17, 2025, 20:29:34
- Ranger sidejack: That your CSM at the Cubs game tonight?* - KingTalkyTiki June 17, 2025, 19:23:45
- So now Trump loves the idea of a strike on Iran* - Stu June 17, 2025, 15:42:50
- Here’s what bothers me re: Trump’s counsel. - opossum jenkins June 17, 2025, 15:38:46
- Speaking of assassinations - TarheelIllini June 17, 2025, 13:34:40
- I was going to ask a related question that is purely out of ignorance… - OB25 June 17, 2025, 13:53:14
- At this point, with Netanyahu in charge and what's going on in Gaza... - KingTalkyTiki June 17, 2025, 17:01:27
- They came to power taking over American embassy and holding hostages - CanHartlebHireSnider June 17, 2025, 14:12:58
- Well, we did overthrow their prior government* - gvibes June 17, 2025, 15:11:11
- I think this answer is just about as xenophobic and tribalist as it could possibly be. - complainant June 17, 2025, 14:17:01
- I'll admit to being xenophobic about the mullahs in Iran* - CanHartlebHireSnider June 17, 2025, 14:18:04
- So we should bomb the people who've suffered most under their reign? - complainant June 17, 2025, 14:20:39
- Part of the question, but after days of controlling the Iranian skies, I think it’s clear - OWWDig June 17, 2025, 14:27:34
- ...Unless they work at TV stations.* - Chuck Woodaby June 17, 2025, 15:02:45
- I think you misspelled state run propaganda network... - OWWDig June 17, 2025, 15:12:18
- There is literally nothing that could happen involving Israel in which you won't stick your head - GMAW June 18, 2025, 8:45:12
- Oh, in that case kill them all. - Chuck Woodaby June 17, 2025, 15:32:34
- Hahah. Okay dude. Israel does everything to avoid killing innocent people. - OWWDig June 17, 2025, 15:37:26
- I don't think you know what the word "everything" means* - GMAW June 18, 2025, 8:45:50
- They are remarkably unsuccessful at that avoidance. * - larue33 June 17, 2025, 16:12:30
- See Gaza. Human shields? Fire away* - JeffFrank June 17, 2025, 15:54:24
- There is no way you can say that after the last year* - snipes824 June 17, 2025, 15:46:29
- There were no warnings on the big initial set of strikes, was there?* - OB25 June 17, 2025, 15:46:05
- this is embarassing* - assassin June 17, 2025, 15:39:25
- If you read my post you see which question I answered. - CanHartlebHireSnider June 17, 2025, 14:23:30
- my gut tells me both are noncombatants and should not be specifically targeted - illiniranger June 17, 2025, 14:10:20
- Iran is the USA, except that Project 2025 was 1979, and antifa did the heavy lifting - complainant June 17, 2025, 14:09:38
- Simplistic answer: one side has threatened to wipe the other off the face of the Earth. - OWWDig June 17, 2025, 14:08:21
- Speaking of Iran - Tortillini June 17, 2025, 12:58:05
- Illinois Street Residence Halls vs. Iran?* - IlliniOllie June 17, 2025, 12:17:11
- Sidejack - Russia allegedly meeting with PRK for missiles and bodies. They’re also bombing Kyiv - MC June 17, 2025, 11:35:11
- Trump now taking credit - CanHartlebHireSnider June 17, 2025, 11:04:28
- this post makes me want to dig out my copies Jane's F-15 and Falcon 4.0*
- Sammich June 17, 2025, 10:30:53
- what are we adding? what's our involvement going to be?* - VIV June 17, 2025, 10:29:41
- to answer - illiniranger June 17, 2025, 10:40:00
- It would seem Iran’s ability to launch ballistic missiles is dwindling - CanHartlebHireSnider June 17, 2025, 10:26:58
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