Well, damn. I guess I have to keep getting up for work. * Archived Message
Posted by doubledown  on February 17, 2025, 12:32:11, in reply to "neither of the ones that have been recently sensationalized would be a planet-killer. "
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Apophis will come within the orbits of geosynchronous satellites in 2029 but won't hit us. There's a lottery ticket chance that slight perturbations in gravity on that pass will cause it to hit us in 2036.
If it does, it would definitely be a bad day. If it hits in the Pacific, it would cause tsunamis that would likely destroy everything within a couple miles of the shore for west coast of north america. if it hits land- i saw the "maximum" likelihood as colombia & venezuela- it would kill millions and devestate most of those countries. we'd have a year or two of severely impacted weather, likely economic panic, and famines, but we'd be back to "normal" in a few years.
2024YR4 is the other one that's gotten recent publicity but it's significantly smaller- like 1/4 the size of apophis. however, it has a significantly higher likelihood of hitting us at 2.2% in 2032. NASA puts the potential impact through the tropics from northern south america, across the atlantic, through central africa, to india. they've also said due to the size, speed, angle, and composition that it'd most likely be an air burst. it's similar in size to what we thought the tunguska event in 1908 was. so it'd be a bad day for a localized area of a couple hundred square miles near the equator.
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Message Thread: | This response ↓
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- This is the worst panic inducing thing for me. Nauseated thinking about it. Also, get stuck on - ibdoc February 17, 2025, 10:41:44
- Your YouTube search history probably would frighten Stephen King* - bbonb February 17, 2025, 10:24:21
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- mods, please delete this post* - lcubed February 17, 2025, 8:54:31
- The nopest of nopes* - Jackie February 17, 2025, 8:53:04
- You ever start thinking about how thin the Earth’s atmosphere actually is, and - doubledown February 17, 2025, 8:46:55
- No, but thinking too long about what came before/caused the Big Bang - Blazer February 17, 2025, 16:55:45
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- Nightmare fuel * - PapaDels February 17, 2025, 6:36:06
- Nutty Putty? - TarheelIllini February 17, 2025, 5:56:36
- getting stuck in a narrow cave opening is probably as close to a phobia as I get - biclops February 16, 2025, 23:57:13
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