confidence). Over the rest of the 21st century, likely ocean warming ranges from 2–4 (SSP1-2.6) to 4–8 times
(SSP5-8.5) the 1971–2018 change. Based on multiple lines of evidence, upper ocean stratification (virtually
certain), ocean acidification (virtually certain) and ocean deoxygenation (high confidence) will continue to
increase in the 21st century, at rates dependent on future emissions. Changes are irreversible on centennial to
millennial time scales in global ocean temperature (very high confidence), deep ocean acidification (very
high confidence) and deoxygenation (medium confidence).
{4.3, 4.5, 4.7, 5.3, 9.2, TS.2.4} (Figure SPM.😎
B.5.2 Mountain and polar glaciers are committed to continue melting for decades or centuries (very high
confidence). Loss of permafrost carbon following permafrost thaw is irreversible at centennial timescales
(high confidence). Continued ice loss over the 21st century is virtually certain for the Greenland Ice Sheet
and likely for the Antarctic Ice Sheet. There is high confidence that total ice loss from the Greenland Ice
Sheet will increase with cumulative emissions. There is limited evidence for low-likelihood, high-impact
outcomes (resulting from ice sheet instability processes characterized by deep uncertainty and in some cases
involving tipping points) that would strongly increase ice loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet for centuries
under high GHG emissions scenarios34
. {4.3, 4.7, 5.4, 9.4, 9.5, Box 9.4, Box TS.1, TS.2.5
Message Thread
- Tango August 10, 2021, 8:00 pm
« Back to index