Europe is going into new partial lockdowns. Since Europe is the largest importer of coffee, it looks like expectations are that demand for coffee will be lower this winter.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/13/why-is-europe-returning-to-the-dark-days-of-covid

COVID passes are required pretty much everywhere (schools, hospitals, state agencies, etc), people are being forced (in a way) to get vaccinated or tested regularly, masks are standard equipment.

4th wave is affecting Europe heavily as the new strain of virus is infecting even vaccinated people, out of which many die (in my country, 20-30% of deceised are vaccinated!?). The life will be very complicated in Europe this winter. Also, natural gas prices went up like crazy and majority of European countries is using gas for heating. Inflation is extremely high, all prices went up, especially food prices. So, in a way, people might just decide to stay at home instead of going to bars and restaurants and drink... whatever they drink.


Reasons for coffee price to go up:
- Fundamental (long term) - Future shortage of coffee caused by droughts and frost in Brazil - still unclear how much damage it did, lots of opposite expectations from major players
- Fundamental (short term) - Shortage of coffee from Vietnam due to XY reasons (seen some article somewhere)
- Fundamental (mid term) - Food grade container shortage / high shipping prices
- Fundamental (long term) - Civil war in Ethiopia (3rd largest Arabica producer)
- Technical (mid-long term) - coffee price is in an upward channel for a long time (looks very bullish)

Reasons for coffee price to go down:
- Fundamental (short term) - Lower demand due to partial lockdowns in Europe - largest coffee importer
- Technical (short term) - overbought


I have no clue what to expect. Feel free to add something to discussion, but please be objective.