Can anyone know with any certainty what any market will do on a sort term basis? Up, down or sideways are the choices so our odds are one out of three. But even if one is right, was it because one Knew or because one was Lucky? So maybe the long term fundamentals are the ones to use. But then one has to remain firm and retain one's position over that "long term" also, no? This can be expensive. I too have no clue what to expect over the short term, but I am fairly well convinced that I will remain positioned long over the long term. Being stubborn may make me some money or I may go broke. If I had my choice, I'd rather make some money.