The Deuce: Man this market is much more volatile than a typical election night.

The Deuce
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Man this market is much more volatile than a typical election night.

Posted by Carl Spackler

on August 11, 2026, 21:35:41, in reply to "Kalshi has the moderate favored right now*"

Kalshi is usually pretty nails once vote totals start coming in but it’s moving all over the place tonight.

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Showing them up double digits is pretty gross.

They are clearly not reliable and these “polling companies” should not be taking seriously. It’s pretty clear they are just extension of the campaign

Another DSA type in a tight race in Wisconsin after flooding with her own polls after Michigan a couple weeks ago.

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Message Thread | This response ↓

Week of August 10 Current Events Thread. Strait’s closed. Moose out front shoulda toldya. - ATL August 10, 2026, 05:50:44

AP calls Wisconsin for Crowley over Hong - complainant 4 hours ago
- It’s almost like moderates win in purple places while leftists win in more liberal places * - ATL 1 hour ago
  - I don't think you can, or should, make that argument for partisan primary elections. - complainant 1 hour ago
- Think her inability to give a clean answer about her old thanksgiving tweet was what did it - ECEIllinois 3 hours ago
  - Republicans sent Scott Walker to help. - complainant 3 hours ago
If Democratic Socialists want to have any chance, they need better spokes people. - doubledown Yesterday, 18:44:09
- The gambit of these DSA types releasing tons of internal polls to try to flood discourse - CanHartlebHireSnider Yesterday, 21:02:17
  - Kalshi has the moderate favored right now* - Carl Spackler Yesterday, 21:15:09
    - Man this market is much more volatile than a typical election night. - Carl Spackler Yesterday, 21:35:41
- Her solution for Ukraine was that we should stop supplying weapons and “send diplomats”* - Carl Spackler Yesterday, 19:30:27
- It feels a bit like the Libertarian party where you have normal people as part of it - reggiedunlop Yesterday, 19:23:55
  - What’s next? A license to make toast in your own damn toaster?* - ECEIllinois 3 hours ago
  - LP hasn't had normal people as part of it in a very long time. * - doubledown Yesterday, 19:31:28
- Wish they could be all Mamdanis, but then you get a Hong* - reggiedunlop Yesterday, 19:22:38
- It's a weird situation. - larue33 Yesterday, 19:22:20
  - I'm glad she's leading the charge toward communism. It ensures that it'll never happen. - doubledown Yesterday, 19:30:32
- I'm convinced that Bluesky is a Russian psyop designed to make DSA look like ignorant teens. - complainant Yesterday, 19:07:58
- Turrible* - KingTalkyTiki Yesterday, 18:46:06
Speaking of Trump wanting a third term (hi tiki), Illinois Republicans are mad that Pritzker - Taz Yesterday, 18:07:25
- They're just mad that they're stuck with Downstate Darren again... - KingTalkyTiki Yesterday, 18:38:11
OK, this is the perfect name for the operation - ATL Yesterday, 16:15:56
- It’s great that the plane continued normally even though there was some credible threat… - shua Yesterday, 16:20:50
  - There was no threat. This was all made up. * - doubledown Yesterday, 16:25:36
    - Why would they make it up, it makes him look like a total pussy* - Sounder Yesterday, 17:30:05
      - What do you think all the other "assassination" attempts were? - Taz Yesterday, 18:09:04
        
        This one makes him look like a pussy - Sounder Yesterday, 18:13:41
        
        I think it's the wattle that makes him look like a pussy. * - doubledown Yesterday, 18:15:17
        
        10/10* - Sounder Yesterday, 18:23:56
        
        Kristi Noem has an extra vagina in her neck. - complainant Yesterday, 19:03:52
      - Trying to remake him into Taylor Swift? If he releases "Art of the Deal (Donald's Version)" - doubledown Yesterday, 17:31:54
    - Like the bullet in the ear that left zero scar level of "made up"?* - KingTalkyTiki Yesterday, 16:57:47
- ...and now I want Panda Express. - KingTalkyTiki Yesterday, 16:18:50
  - my 9 year olds favorite restaurant. he ranked in and out behind it after trying it the first time - lcubed Yesterday, 16:59:47
Biden has Stage 4 cancer. Trump is unimpressed. - ATL Yesterday, 15:38:11
- Imagine thinking Joe Biden is "vicious". Real alpha male stuff right there.* - Warrin'_Illini Yesterday, 16:28:54
  - Is he vicious or sleepy?!?* - shua Yesterday, 16:31:36
    - Trump? Both.* - KingTalkyTiki Yesterday, 16:40:07
    - Viciously sleepy or sleepily vicious?* - DocWalk20 Yesterday, 16:33:33
      - One of the lesser known Sex Pistols* - shua Yesterday, 18:16:59
- he's such a tremendous fuck. * - VIV Yesterday, 16:26:05
- "Why have relationships gotten so toxic around politics?!?" .... - KingTalkyTiki Yesterday, 16:09:47
- He is who we thought he was. If you want to crown him, crown his ass. - DT Yesterday, 16:01:10
  - Don’t forget the amount of people that will die because of the USAid rug pull* - Carl Spackler Yesterday, 17:00:25
  - #truth* - DocWalk20 Yesterday, 16:48:09
  - You have described Andrew Johnson.* - complainant Yesterday, 16:45:06
    - ...and to no one's surprise the current POS in the WH seems to admire that historical POS. - KingTalkyTiki Yesterday, 16:56:24
      - Andrew Johnson is different from Andrew Jackson.* - complainant Yesterday, 17:38:13
        
        Goddammit, got my genocidal asshole president mixed up with my ineffectual filler president... - KingTalkyTiki Yesterday, 17:45:05
      - that's Andrew Jackson* - assassin Yesterday, 17:37:05
  - Ari or Osklister could probably help you to understand how someone could.. - KingTalkyTiki Yesterday, 16:13:17
  - Trump's death will be Charlie Kirk times infinity - Sounder Yesterday, 16:03:48
    - Won't somebody(ies) text you and wake you up? - Taz Yesterday, 18:03:07
- $20 that if Joe dies while Trump remains the POTUS, he won’t give us DC feds the day off - timmer Yesterday, 15:42:03
  - No chance he would have the stones to show up the funeral, right?* - Sounder Yesterday, 16:04:56
    - He didn't even have the guts to show up for the inauguration in 2020... - KingTalkyTiki Yesterday, 16:15:07
      - But in the inauguration, he was the loser - Sounder Yesterday, 17:42:26
        
        I'm sure he'll be about as welcome there as he was at the opening of the Obama Library.* - KingTalkyTiki Yesterday, 17:46:10
        
        Like Trump would ever be caught dead somewhere that has books* - Sounder Yesterday, 18:26:37
"Woman Behind Trump at Vaccine Signing Sparks Robot Claims" - assassin Yesterday, 12:31:54
- Now I saw some call this "Megan 3.0" and I can't unsee it. - KingTalkyTiki Yesterday, 17:52:03
- It's like if you asked AI to create a 1970s stewardess with the lifelike motion... - KingTalkyTiki Yesterday, 13:15:24
  - She looks like Kimberly Guilfoyle before the Mar-A-Lago face* - Sounder Yesterday, 16:06:22
  - I imagine that when I finally get to fly to South America, all the LATAM stewardesses - ATL Yesterday, 13:17:01
- I don't know about that but she's easy on the eyes* - ATL Yesterday, 12:35:33
Tornado warning in Chicago. Every phone in the office just blew up.* - Warrin'_Illini Yesterday, 10:30:55
- That sounds like a fire hazard* - KCWildcat Yesterday, 12:29:02
  - effing Tim Cook* - ATL Yesterday, 12:29:23
    - effing Mossad* - Sammich Yesterday, 13:17:22
Brad Pitt is drinking again. I say good for him.* - Warrin'_Illini Yesterday, 09:46:39
- Why should I care? - TarheelIllini Yesterday, 11:40:04
  - You got a lot of nerve cocksucker!* - Warrin'_Illini Yesterday, 12:13:39
  - I thought it was Film at 11* - Tortillini Yesterday, 12:06:44
    - News of the Film at 11 - IlliniSax05 Yesterday, 12:07:39
- I've been drinking quite a bit more than I usually do. - doubledown Yesterday, 10:23:43
- Might as well. What else is there? - complainant Yesterday, 10:19:44
  - I mean he is still an A++ lister. Think it probably has more to do with his family - Warrin'_Illini Yesterday, 10:26:27
    - Shows what I know. Of course, I haven't been to the movies in over 20 years. - complainant Yesterday, 11:39:15
      - His latest movie preview ran before both Odyssey and Spider-Man when I saw them* - DocWalk20 Yesterday, 12:14:19
        
        And he was the star of a box office hit last summer (albeit not Odyssey level).* - ATL Yesterday, 12:25:29
Who am I rooting for in South Carolina's GOP primary for US Senate? - complainant Yesterday, 07:24:20
- Mark Sanford maybe the least crazy. Mistress trouble and all* - JacobRDaugherty Yesterday, 09:34:36
  - Did he stay with his wife or the mistress?* - TarheelIllini Yesterday, 11:32:26
    - Have you tried Ask Jeeves?* - complainant Yesterday, 11:36:17
- a hurricane* - Sounder Yesterday, 09:33:55
- Did Danny Ford even know his picture was being taken?* - DocWalk20 Yesterday, 09:32:55
- Duke. Republicans won't turn out for a Black guy* - Stu Yesterday, 08:16:39
Serious question: does Trump actually believe that kids are getting soda bottle sized - Sounder August 10, 2026, 20:39:34
- Actual photo: - Stu Yesterday, 05:27:10
- Maybe he thought one of those Ben Garrison cartoons was real life* - ECEIllinois August 10, 2026, 23:10:19
- He has no idea, but they’d what he was told, so yes* - Mrap24 August 10, 2026, 21:09:13
  - There is no way anyone told him that* - Sounder August 10, 2026, 21:09:46
    - I mean you see the morons he’s hired. - Mrap24 August 10, 2026, 21:11:12
      - Even RFK isn't stupid enough to think they are injecting a pint glass full of vaccine* - Sounder August 10, 2026, 22:01:16
        
        Sadly I think he is. - WhitmansFolly Yesterday, 07:46:14
        
        i think it's easier for people to believe they are dumb instead of incredibly dangerous. and they - torinese Yesterday, 07:04:17
        
        If this is true WRT RFK, what is the end game?* - Sounder Yesterday, 09:34:31
        
        (1) he is. (2) he is also a liar.* - ATL Yesterday, 05:35:11
These people are so dumb. - OB25 August 10, 2026, 19:47:36
- Will he be draft eligible or not? If yes, why? If not, why not? - Potomac August 10, 2026, 19:58:21
  - There may eventually be a real situation that they need to adresss. But this isn’t that. - OB25 August 10, 2026, 20:19:36
    - There actually is reasonable nuance to the debate - Sounder August 10, 2026, 20:40:48
      - Debates have nuances, decisions often do not* - Potomac August 10, 2026, 20:41:59
    - You may be right; I think they are in the process of boxing themselves in... - Potomac August 10, 2026, 20:37:27
  - lol* - assassin August 10, 2026, 20:16:30
- “Or let him play” - snipes824 August 10, 2026, 19:58:04
- It's just sad that they take so much joy in trying to bring people down for the 0.0001% this - UofIL6 August 10, 2026, 19:56:36
LOL - ATL August 10, 2026, 18:44:16
- I was just at buc-ees on Friday and will be again on Wednesday - TarheelIllini August 10, 2026, 19:52:27
  - I think you're missing the joke.* - Illiniphil August 10, 2026, 20:41:32
    - Autophil?* - complainant Yesterday, 03:54:49
- Tony Dokupil?* - complainant August 10, 2026, 18:47:28
  - Probably - ATL August 10, 2026, 18:50:33
That is not Tony Dokupil* - ATL August 10, 2026, 16:26:27
- You're not Ron.* - Warrin'_Illini August 10, 2026, 17:15:17
- letting the days go by, letting the water hold me down* - Sammich August 10, 2026, 17:05:14
- Is it Tony Dokoupil?* - DocWalk20 August 10, 2026, 16:39:12
  - Is it Biclops?* - timmer August 10, 2026, 16:40:36
Gross, Pete. Really gross. - ATL August 10, 2026, 16:16:17
i hope bill cassidy never gets another good night's sleep again - assassin August 10, 2026, 15:45:55
- So many opportunities where one person could have made a stand / done the right thing and didn’t* - DocWalk20 August 10, 2026, 16:36:36
  - Someone really needs to write Profiles in Cowardice, guaranteed best seller* - Sounder August 10, 2026, 17:03:55
We’re just blowing through nap time aren’t we? - VIV August 10, 2026, 14:37:39
- He really could've used a fart to wake himself up - UofIL6 August 10, 2026, 22:23:07
Mass. wealth tax proves to be huge fiscal success & number of millionaires in state increases 38%. - ATL August 10, 2026, 11:42:34
- i think the hit to higher ed and bio tech hasn't been fully felt yet.* - torinese August 10, 2026, 14:42:50
- Sorry, but it’s an income tax surcharge not a wealth tax* - Potomac August 10, 2026, 12:00:05
  - OK* - ATL August 10, 2026, 12:19:23
Rather than hold oil the entire time, really wish I’d bought the dips around the BS admin optimism - Carl Spackler August 10, 2026, 10:28:03
we're essentially trying to slowly back out of the room and hope no one will notice. - VIV August 10, 2026, 09:48:43
- If you really think about it, Trump is simply too strong to surrender.* - Toonces August 10, 2026, 12:49:57
- The Strait is open, for target practice. * - memyselfandillini August 10, 2026, 10:20:40
  - What did Kegseth do with all our missiles? Trillion dollar defense budget apparently ain't enough.* - Warrin'_Illini August 10, 2026, 10:33:31
    - about 60% of the budget is operations, maintenance, and personnel (pay, benefits, and allowances) - illiniranger August 10, 2026, 13:32:53
    - They publicly announced last year that logistics are gay/woke and a thing of the past - RVA August 10, 2026, 12:37:20
      - I love how their new recruiting vid shows a guy coming out of a swamp like Rambo - Stu August 10, 2026, 14:19:15
    - Interesting factoid: - Stu August 10, 2026, 10:37:02
      - Is this a result of congressmen making sure their constituents get a piece of the pie?* - timmer August 10, 2026, 14:52:25
      - The path forward on weapons technology is going to be very interesting. - larue33 August 10, 2026, 11:46:59
      - Throwing another $58 Billion at Lockheed to make more should fix that. - Chuck Woodaby August 10, 2026, 11:07:11
      - Lotta mouths to feed. To streamline things, we just need to come up with a bomb - Warrin'_Illini August 10, 2026, 10:40:33
        
        Where's Edward Teller when you need him?* - IlliniOllie August 10, 2026, 11:04:01
        
        HE’S RIGHT BEHIND YOU!!!* - Stu August 10, 2026, 11:25:24
  - did anyone else read this as david caruso and then put on a pair of sunglasses or just me?* - lcubed August 10, 2026, 10:23:58
- Israel and Iran don't really seem to be doing anything to each other - CanHartlebHireSnider August 10, 2026, 10:17:49
  - Bibi said last week that they'll do it alone if need be. Also, Israel struck Iran in June* - VIV August 10, 2026, 10:35:32
He's pretty fortunate. He could say he had a dream about an open strait and oil drops 6% - UofIL6 August 10, 2026, 07:40:39
- we're currently in a vibes-based stock market. * - VIV August 10, 2026, 09:49:48
  - ooo - ATL August 10, 2026, 10:27:39
  - my 401k appreciates it, but it doesn't feel real* - shua August 10, 2026, 10:01:42
    - Definitely feels like there’s a significant market correction coming at some point soon - DT August 10, 2026, 11:04:20
      - Winter is Coming. * - doubledown August 10, 2026, 11:16:43
1/3 of the American public would believe TCG if he pissed in their ear and told them it was raining - TarheelIllini August 10, 2026, 06:14:07
- As if he has any control over when and where he pisses. * - doubledown August 10, 2026, 07:45:56

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