what is the scenario for kicking PAT on first TD and going for 2 on the second?Archived Message
Posted by suburbanmyth on January 21, 2024, 17:35:20, in reply to "here's the math:"
should be the same as scenario 1 but without the demoralizing reality that you're down 8 instead of 7.
i cannot see any scenario where case 1 is better than my case 3.
Previous Message
since 2015, PAT success rate is 94%, 2pt conversion success rate is 48%.
and assume 50% chance in OT.
you're also assuming you're scoring another TD and you're stopping the other team.
Going for 2: 1. Make the 2pt, kick a PAT to win: 45.12%
2. Make the 2pt, miss the PAT, go to OT: 2.88% a. Win in OT: 1.44% b: Lose in OT: 1.44%
3. Miss the 2pt the first time, make it the 2nd time and go to OT: 24.96% a. win in OT: 12.48% b. lose in OT: 12.48%
4. Miss both and lose in regulation: 27.04%
Win pct: 59.04% Lose pct: 40.96%
Kicking the PAT: 1. Make both: 88.36% a. Win in OT: 44.18% b. Lose in OT: 44.18%
2. Make the first, miss the 2nd (lose): 5.64%
3. Miss the first, have to go for 2 on the 2nd: 5.64% a. Make the 2, go to OT: 2.70% i. win in OT: 1.3% ii. lose in OT: 1.3% b. Miss the 2 (lose): 2.94%