quick wild ass guesses at how the QBs shake out this offseason:Archived Message
Posted by VIV on March 5, 2024, 12:20:47, in reply to "NFL Combine Week"
I've got 17 teams with what I'd consider "solid" QB situations, either because the QB is really good or is young enough that the team is going to give at least this year for a full shot:
Buffalo, Miami, Cincy, Baltimore, Indy, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Houston, KC, LA Chargers, Philly, Dallas, Green Bay, Detroit, Carolina, SF, LA Rams.
I've got 5 more with a clear starter that is either aging or underperforming a big contract, where the team may be looking for a backup or developmental QB:
NY Jets, Cleveland, New Orleans, Arizona, Seattle
Which leaves the QB needy teams as:
New England, Pittsburgh, Las Vegas, Denver, Washington, NY Giants, Chicago, Minnesota, Tampa Bay, Atlanta
And the following available QBs:
Free agent/for trade starters: Cousins, Russ, Baker, Fields Free agent premium backups/could be a low end starter: Brissett, Tannehill, Minshew Likely day 1 starter via draft: Caleb, Maye, Daniels Draft 1st rounder, but may not start day 1: McCarthy, Nix Penix.
Before free agency starts, I think Baker gets a deal done to go back to TB.
Starting with free agency, the big chess piece to move first is going to be Cousins. There are many suitors for him, but I think it will come down to staying in MIN or going to ATL and I think it'll be a toss up. I think ATL will come with a stronger bid and he'll go there.
Next move- where does Russ end up? Pittsburgh is the current favorite and I think it makes sense. Tomlin can't love the kids they've had rotating through and wants more of a finished product. Steelers country, let's mine.
That unfortunately takes two of the main landing spots for a Fields trade, and our remaining spots are:
NE, LV, DEN, NYG, WAS, MIN.
Cross Minnesota off. Zero chance they trade in the division.
Going to the Giants and Brian Daboll actually makes a ton of sense and can accomplish the trade up the Bears might want for a WR.
Fields and pick 9 to the Giants for pick 6 and a 2025 conditional pick.
New England has arguably the worst roster top to bottom in the league. I don't think the time is right for them to take a QB at 3 when they can get a haul from someone coming up for a start-now QB. I think the Patriots trade out of pick 3 in the next couple of weeks. The Broncos and Raiders are both highly motivated to come up, but the Raiders have much more draft capital to make the move. I think they go with a stop-gap starter that can float them for the next 1-2 years while they work on building the rest of the roster. Ryan Tannehill to New England.
With Cousins to Atlanta in this scenario, the Vikings will take either Minshew or Brissett as a premium backup/could be our starter for a season so we don't need to put all our eggs in a rookie's basket. I think Brissett fits them better.
With the Raiders making the trade up to 3, the Broncos are scrambling and have to have someone as a potential starter. I think they sign Minshew.
On to the draft:
Bears pick Caleb at 1. I had the Commandos going with Daniels at 2 in my first mock and I just like that fit. Raiders take Maye at 3.
Then it gets pretty interesting. The Broncos are still desperate to trade up because they burned everything down and currently have Minshew as a starter in my scenario. I think they overpay with what little draft capital they have to go up to, say, pick 5 with the Chargers (even though it's intradivisional) and they draft McCarthy.
Minnesota drafts at 11 and I said before I think Nix is a perfect fit for the McVay system. Kevin O'Connell and Wes Phillips are directly from that system. I think they take Nix to pair with Brissett.
That leaves Penix. I can't think of a better fit for him than staying in Seattle and playing for his former Assistant head coach/offensive coordinator & quarterbacks coach at Washington Ryan Grubb, who was just hired as the Seahawks OC.
So, my projections for week 1 starting QBs: New England: Ryan Tannehill, with maybe a mid round pick on a QB like Spencer Rattler. Pittsburgh: Russell Wilson Las Vegas: Drake Maye Denver: Gardner Minshew/ JJ McCarthy NY Giants: Justin Fields Washington: Jayden Daniels Chicago: Caleb Williams Minnesota: Jacoby Brissett/Bo Nix Tampa Bay: Baker Mayfield Atlanta: Kirk Cousins Seattle: Geno Smith/ Michael Penix