Some context for the un-emBloomberged masses of Bluesky: today's GDPNow estimate is literally the worst number excepting COVID that has happened since the indicator existed
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.8 percent on March 3, down from -1.5 percent on February 28. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real private fixed investment growth fell from 1.3 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively, to 0.0 percent and 0.1 percent.
A Key Interest Rate Falls, but Not for the Reasons Trump Wanted Investors’ increasingly gloomy sentiment about economic growth appears to be driving down the 10-year Treasury yield.