20 coffee crop production 74 mln bags dissapearance 68 mln surplus 6.0 mln
21 coffee crop production 56 mln bags dissapearance 68 mln deficit 12.0 mln
22 coffee............................58 or less..............................68.........deficit 10.0 mln
23 still wide open but most likely 71 mln bags or less max surplus 3.0 mln bags.
The Brazil deficit for the crop being harvested shortly cannot be balanced by the rest of the producing countries it has to come out of consumer stocks which obviously can only be reduced to a certain level! Obviously numbers don’t add up to declining prices. Since November 21 prices have been flat to declining how can the market have correctly priced a 10 mln bag deficit while the crop was in its initial stages of growth and before any real demand for that shipping season showed up? UNLIKELY! Imagine corn prices being flat for 6 months going through a drought and prices falling 20 % not taking account of the drop in production and stocks. Could not happen, only in Coffee where a few players exert a huge amount of influence on prices.We have not begun to balance this year’s 10 mln bag deficit price wise don’t believe the contrary.. Now for the last 6 months we’ve been told prices will crash because the 23 crop is going to be Yuge, what? We’re 13 months from harvest. A lot can happen. First massive cold front,unheard of in May what does it mean for the crop and the rest of the winter? Maybe those 23 production expectations are a little too optimistic. What if we do lose some production to frost are we going to be saying prices will decline because we will have a bumper 24 crop? If you do the math for Brazil and realize that Brazil produces 40 % of world coffee, if things go a little wrong the impact on prices will be massive.
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