If there is no inventory in Brazil there is no producing country inventory of any significance except for Vietnam.
Any case letís go down the Usda World Coffee report rabbit hole. The Usda is saying the opening inventory will be as you mentioned 30 man bags. They also report that the Brazil opening stock will be 2.8 mln bags BUT that number was based on Brazil exports of 33.0 man bags. Brazil exports are going to be closer to 38 man bags! So I think we can agree that Brazil inventories will be at a minimum and so Brazil will be exporting a deficit of 10 mln bags to the world in the new season.
Remaining coffee stocks are Europe 12.0 mln , US 5.5, Japan 3.0, consumer stocks 20.5 mln bags
So using the USDA number we have 9.5 mln bags spread across the rest of the producing countries but as I have shown this number is lower because of the increased Brazil exports.
If You apply a 10 mln bag deficit to the 30mln bags you drop to 20 mln bags worldwide. There is no coffee outside of the consuming countries impossible. We consume approximately 14 mln bags a month, only 1.5 month of supply impossible! The stock to use ratio 11.7% never happened and never will, prices will have to rise to cut consumption.
23/24 has to be about rebuilding inventories, with potential crop issues the coffee drinker is facing a vey precarious situation!
If you do the work you will see that the situation canít be any clearer!
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