The key point which you address spot-on is that every single pre-forecasts or predictions for 2023 to be SO AMAZINGLY GOOD AND HUGE are the most ridiculously statement seen in the coffee market since the highs of June, not only because most of the 200K-250K hec affected by frost last year still will be very far from producing in 2023 but also because we are over 14 months away from that crop to be even fully picked - comments such as these by some market player DO indicate just how desperate current buyers are in terms of trying/seeking to justify much too low current pricing levels, especially since fertilizer prices have risen between 300%-400% since the war in Ukraine started.
But making things worse, we just had - literally TODAY THU after ICE market close when most were still obsessing about new Conab figures and external pressure from macro indicators - a HUGE story breaking with 40% of the conilon crop in ES now CONFIRMED to have been hit by a monster hail storm which stroke the vast area of robusta coffee with tropical storm/hurricane strength winds and hails the size of 5-6cm on May 17. Again, this mostly started to unfold AFTER market closure but is already ALL OVER local news in Brazil and social media such as instagram, extending over a 200km-long growing area from Linhares all the way to the border with Bahia and impact registered in an area covering at least 100,000 hectares of the ES conilon park. The market and some of my colleagues in the trade press as well as other independent analysts MAY try to ignore this for the next few days, but the magnitude of this is MUCH too big and much too SIGNIFICANT in real numbers to stay out of the news much longer. And the longer $jo traders and market wait to accept this, the more costly it will be for them to cover positions and supply needs later.
So the "little wrong" you mention HAS already happened on a HUGE scale and things will only continue to go further downhill from here; First of all what this NEW and latest weather disaster means right now is the market can kiss the dream of a bigger Brazil Conilon crop in 2022 bye bye!!
Here's the latest from my VERY active Twitter feed where just today I had over 46,000 views and constant and busy engagement and Q&A with followers from ALL segments of coffee market from seed to cup and all in between.
Happy coffee drinking to all - enjoy it while you can!
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