Dear Maja with all due respect the most verifiable number with regard to Brazil coffee statistics is the export number reported monthly by Cecafe. Brazil domestic coffee
Consumption is + or - 23.0 mln bags. So yes you are correct when you say it is simple math. Exports look like they will achieve 38.0 mln bags combined with domestic consumption of 23 we are looking at a total dissapearance of 61.0 mln bags, we know Robusta production was 23.0 mln bags. This leaves38.0 mln bags that we need to explain Arabica production and stocks. You’re not happy with the stock number and think it should be lower than you have to increase your production number. You must also take into account the pipeline stocks that remain year in year out. SO,

Pipeline stocks 2.0 mln bags
Production Conillon 23.0
Production Arabica 33.0
Total. 58.0 mln bags

Exports. 38.0
Domestic. 23.0
Total. 61.0
Plus pipeline stocks. 2.0
Total. 63.0

To achieve balance 5.0 mln bags of stocks in excess of pipeline stocks were held in warehouse and on farms etc. DON’T tell me this is impossible because I am very familiar when 14.0 mln bags of stocks were held in Brazil in 2014! You don’t like the stocks number than you have to increase your production number which in my opinion does not jive with the conditions the coffee park endured. I believe I am more realistic with my coffee statistics than yourself and have to be because they are backed by $. By the way I am way more bullish than you are with regard to the price depending on upcoming developments! While you make very bold predictions they have to be backed up by the levels of exports otherwise you may be hurting more than helping your community.
GT