Posted by Espresso1 on May 20, 2022, 7:39 pm, in reply to "Re: Brazil Fundamentals - New weather disaster hits CONILON coffee in Brazil" [/r Dear Maja, I have been following coffee on a daily basis since July 2014 . In fact I have held a long position that i have varied in size since July 2014 going on 9 years. I have seen heard and studied in real time from experts and non experts including yourself and I have educated myself on the coffee market, to where I have a high level of confidence in my analysis. If you want to debate or defend your position please do it in a consistent orderly manner as follows. Please give your numbers for the following which I searched in your materials and I could find no mention of! All for Brazil Opening coffee stocks 20/21 Conillon production 20/21 Arabica production 20/21 Conillon Production 21/22 Arabica production 21/22 I see you were completely absent in quoting production of the failed flowering only back on Twitter after the summer frosts Once I have these 5 numbers from you we can see if your analysis holds up against exports and domestic demand! You will note that I have included a graph showing the stocks in Brazil by the top coffee analyst at Volcafe at that time. You can clearly see that Brazil clearly had much larger stocks than what you believe is possible. In fact the 60’s and 70’s they had stocks that could cover a year of demand, You do provide the market with positive information but your position is always so extreme it’s a complete outlier. Other participants have to be somewhere around you. After the frost you claimed a 12 million bag loss. Now you claim total coffee production under 45 mln bags. You have made extreme claims consistently through the years and they haven’t panned out. I challenge you to give me those 5 numbers and let’s build your Supply / Demand and see if it makes sense! Message Thread Brazil Fundamentals - Espresso1 May 17, 2022, 6:01 pm CarryOver - Gomes May 17, 2022, 9:30 pm Re: CarryOver - Espresso1 May 18, 2022, 3:33 am Re: CarryOver - Q May 18, 2022, 12:29 pm Re: CarryOver - Gomes May 18, 2022, 1:27 pm Re: CarryOver - Stocks in Brazil and/or bullish sentiment - MajaWallengrenSpillingTheBeans May 20, 2022, 6:52 pm Re: Brazil Fundamentals - New weather disaster hits CONILON coffee in Brazil - MajaWallengrenSpillingTheBeans May 20, 2022, 12:20 am Re: Brazil Fundamentals - New weather disaster hits CONILON coffee in Brazil - Espresso1 May 20, 2022, 4:09 pm Re: Brazil Fundamentals - New weather disaster hits CONILON coffee in Brazil - MajaWallengrenSpillingTheBeans May 20, 2022, 6:09 pm Re: Brazil Fundamentals - New weather disaster hits CONILON coffee in Brazil - Espresso1 May 20, 2022, 7:39 pm Re: Brazil Fundamentals - New weather disaster hits CONILON coffee in Brazil - Espresso1 May 21, 2022, 3:43 pm Re: Brazil Fundamentals - New weather disaster hits CONILON coffee in Brazil - Tango May 22, 2022, 7:48 am « Back to index
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