I have been following coffee on a daily basis since July 2014 . In fact I have held a long position that i have varied in size since July 2014 going on 9 years. I have seen heard and studied in real time from experts and non experts including yourself and I have educated myself on the coffee market, to where I have a high level of confidence in my analysis. If you want to debate or defend your position please do it in a consistent orderly manner as follows. Please give your numbers for the following which I searched in your materials and I could find no mention of! All for Brazil
Opening coffee stocks 20/21
Conillon production 20/21
Arabica production 20/21
Conillon Production 21/22
Arabica production 21/22 I see you were completely absent in quoting production of the failed flowering only back on Twitter after the summer frosts
Once I have these 5 numbers from you we can see if your analysis holds up against exports and domestic demand!
You will note that I have included a graph showing the stocks in Brazil by the top coffee analyst at Volcafe at that time. You can clearly see that Brazil clearly had much larger stocks than what you believe is possible. In fact the 60ís and 70ís they had stocks that could cover a year of demand,
You do provide the market with positive information but your position is always so extreme itís a complete outlier. Other participants have to be somewhere around you. After the frost you claimed a 12 million bag loss. Now you claim total coffee production under 45 mln bags. You have made extreme claims consistently through the years and they havenít panned out.
I challenge you to give me those 5 numbers and letís build your Supply / Demand and see if it makes sense!
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