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Posted by Q
on May 18, 2022, 12:29 pm, in reply to "Re: CarryOver
I think the issue is (and I'm not saying you're wrong) that brazil is exporting this much. It either means prior years crops were bigger or 21/22 is bigger, or both which presumably has a knock on effect to 22/23 estimates. Add in lower consumption and the difference between 180 and 300 coffee is on a knifes edge and potentially unknowable.