Written by Marcelo Teixeira for Reuters
NEW YORK, Dec 1 (Reuters) - Brazilian farmers will produce a minimum of 50 million and a maximum of 56 million bags of coffee next year as production areas continue to be negatively impacted by the weather, according to a report by independent analyst SpillingTheBeans.
There are still few estimates in the market about next year's crop in the world's largest coffee producer and exporter. Some initial reports by commodities traders indicated the production would be large despite the off-year in the biennial arabica cycle, but recent evaluation by experts reduced expectations.
SpillingTheBeans chief analyst Maja Wallengren said in the report released on Thursday, after she completed a crop tour throughout Brazilian coffee farms, that most trees are still recovering from the extreme weather issues that affected the country last year and this season such as frosts and drought.
"There was mass defoliation which left trees unusually weakened and without the sufficient nutrition to sustain cherry development from flowering," she said, adding that the La Niña weather effects is also reducing sun-exposure significantly, an issue that reduces yields in coffee production.
The projection is in the low end of estimates for next year's production in Brazil released so far.
Dutch bank Rabobank, for example, projects a large crop of 68.6 million bags.
The Brazilian government has yet to release its first estimate for next year's production. It projected the 2022 crop at 50.38 million 60-kg bags, a 5.6% increase year-on-year but down from May projection of 53.43 million bags.
(Reporting by Marcelo Teixeira; Editing by Rashmi Aich)
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