Thank you for the comments Espresso and Tango, I would agree that Maja's general knowledge of coffee, and especially her understanding of agronomy and plant physiology, should be given much more credit. And even if her numbers are lower than most, I don't think that discredit her numbers to the extend you suggest Espresso, I also remember some people here on the forum earlier saying that she was the first to get the big impact of drought in ES right back in 2014, and back then her numbers were spot on, so it is really unthinkable that her numbers could be closer to the truth?

As for her new forecast for the 2023 crop, which I believe was the report Reuters used for the article, she actually released her full report yesterday and it's a very detailed and well argued review of the full production outlook both for arabica and conilon. I have also heard a lot of both the growers and even several of the traders ad buyers with Ecom and other multinationals in ES saying the crop really is looking quite bad, so even if it might not be 30% it sure does appear like it's lot worse than 10% lower.

About her 2022 figure, I have not seen her saying 53M anywhere Tango, but in her report yesterday she published this;

Author’s Note; For comparison, my initial figure for the 2022 harvest was for the harvest to produce 44M-48M bags, and I have for now settled for the 2022 harvest to have produced 48M bags, 18M for Conilon-Robusta and 30M for Arabica. I continue to review the robusta figure for Rondonia based on the latest evidence, as well as the final arabica figure for Matas, but do maintain and insist that the Arabica crop in the 2022 harvest ended BELOW the volume produced in 2021, primarily because of Southern Minas reporting overall lower output in 2022 compared to 2021.

SO even if not at 53, it would indicate that she has now revised her figure upward, which should also earn her some credit here, even if there is still a big dispute over conilon numbers, no?

I have attached her full report, you guys should give it a read, I would really like to here your thoughts on this.

http://www.spilling-the-beans.net/exclusive-brazils-2023-coffee-harvest-to-recover-to-50m-56m-but-conilon-down-30/