Please think about this. Maja is not giving us any numbers for 21/22. If we use Safra Mercado numbers along with exports and domestic consumption we get stocks drawing down 6.5 man bags.

21/22 Arabica 34.70 Robusta 21.80 total 56.50
Domestic 22.5
Exports 40.0
Stocks Down 6.5

Now Maja is saying the 22/23 crop was 48 mln bags we know domestic is 22.5 and exports are running 36-37 mln bags. This puts the demand at 57 mln bags. Using Maja’s number of 48 we need stocks of approximately
9.0 mln bags to balance out. To make the 2 years work Brazil would have had to have stocks of over 15 mln bags when the USDA was reporting 5.0

I don’t know if you can believe that but I can’t!

Also to make a proper forecast she should have given a forecast separately for Cotillon and Arabica. She is saying Cotillon could be down 30% from 18.0 that makes 12.0 so Arabica could be as high as 44.0 doesn”t jive with her comments.

Yes, I agree Cotillon is in bad shape and we may see in the end a 20% decline BUT from 23.0 mln bags, The difference between 10 and 20% is 2,0 mln bags she”s basically cut the crop in half. I have been in coffee since 2014 and she”s never made a correct forecast. Sorry.


Coffee can be bullish without sensational forecasts better stay grounded.