Unfortunately her forecasts for actual production are unreliable and of little use to the serious coffee trader. She has no checks and balances against her Forecast. You can verify your production number by checking it against domestic consumption, exports, and opening stocks. I have pointed this out to her several times. For example her production number for the crop just harvested is I believe 48 mln bags. We know domestic consumption is 23 mln and exports are running at 36-37 mln bags this indicates that the Brazil opening stock figure is around 12 mln bags this makes little sense to me. She also uses a Conillon estimate of 18 mln bags where there is general agreement that the production was around 23 mln bags. In her new forecast just released she is forecasting a large reduction in the Conillon crop if you reduce the 18 mln bags by even 10% you are talking about a 16 mln Conillon crop which is pretty improbable. I canít make hide or tails of her forecast. I suggest you start with a 20% increase in Arabica and a 10 % reduction in Conillon over last year to start with.
Where we absolutely have to give her full credit is giving us a clear picture of what is actually happening on the ground in Brazil and that is a very modest recovery from a year ago and that the talk of a large crop this year is a pipe dream. So she brings a strong dose of reality just donít run to far with her numbers!
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