And all due respect, but ask anyone in the Brazilian market and they will tell you nobody there believes Safra e Mercado since a very long time, they are just as eagerly exaggerating figures upward as Maja may be holding on to lower figures, but at least Maja bases her forecast on actually on-site and in field analysis.
If I take your analysis as you make it here, i.e. a difference of 9M bags, and the fact that the whole last year exporters and the trade has insisted they were holding on to at least 10-12 bags in shipments that had been delayed from 2020+2021 because of Covid logistics delays, it's not too far from making a possible case that the real production number is closer to 48 as Maja says,
And even with your own analysis, if it's only 20% damage to a conilon crop of 23M bags, that would still be a reduction of at least 4-5M bags. At least Maja is reporting the problems in Conilon areas, and a very large part of Conilon areas and the videos and pictures backed this up. whereas Rabobank acts like everything is perfect? Also, she said very speficially conilon is down 30%, not the entire conilon AND robusta crop, it's not the same, but most analyst don't even bother to specify this, so you are not qouting her comment correctly when you say she wants to cut the crop in half, she is only referring to conilon and actually says she believes the robusta crop in RO is up 10% and the conilon crop in Bahia is largely flat.
SO how does Maja's numbers compare to Rabobank that didn't go to the field according to the people in Brazil who spoke to them, and say everything is perfect? Why is no one here criticizing Rabobank?
« Back to index